Guardians vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2026

Guardians at Royals

6:10 pm • CLEG

Cleveland Guardians

41-38

8 - 5

Kansas City Royals

33-46

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Lugo			3.69	3-4
S.Cecconi			4.48	3-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 41-38	+1.5-179	o9.5-110	+110
Royals 33-46	-1.5+149	u9.5-110	-130

Thursday 6:10 p.m.

May 07, 2026

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

B.Witt o1.5 Total Bases-128

$1.00

CLE +128

1.28u

Over 9.5-105

1.43u

Over 9.5-105

0.95u

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy Cecconi enters with a 6.56 ERA, and this total gets 15 mph wind blowing out. Cleveland games cleared 9.5 in 6 of the last 10, averaging 10.7 total runs. Lugo's 2.68 ERA looks clean, but the 4.09 xERA and 38% hard-hit rate keep Cleveland live enough.

V.Pasquantino o0.5 HR+460

2.3u

V.Pasquantino o0.5 HR+470

1.18u

B.Witt o1.5 Total Bases-118

S.Lugo u17.5 Outs+135

1.35u

There may be some value on Seth Lugo's pitching outs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.26 pitching outs, and oddsmakers are implying 17.86. The model believes there is a 58% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs. If you can get the under at +135 or better there is great value here. This play is good down to at least -110. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

S.Lugo u4.5 Ks-113

0.57u

CLE +120

0.5u

Under 5 (F5)-120

0.6u

Under 9.5-120

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 15-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Royals' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	34-45	19-22	15-23	14-21	19-24
Guardians	42-37	19-17	23-20	18-23	24-13

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	37-41-1	21-19-1	16-22	21-14	16-26-1
Guardians	39-40	18-18	21-22	21-20	17-20

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	33-46	19-22	14-24	16-19	16-27
Guardians	41-38	19-17	22-21	22-19	19-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	CLE	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	CLE -140
May 5th	CLE	W 5-3	+1.5 W	O 7.5	KC -103
May 4th	CLE	W 6-2	-	U 9	KC -120
May 3rd	@SEA	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	KC -105
May 3rd	@SEA	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8	KC +120

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Cecconi, P	82	5.1	3	2
LT.Herrin, P	12	0.1	0	0
RC.Brogdon, P	36	1.1	1	2
RH.Gaddis, P	10	0.2	0	1
LE.Sabrowski, P	6	0.1	1	0
RC.Smith, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	1-4	1	0	0
2C.DeLauter, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Martinez, RF	0-0	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, DH	1-3	1	0	0
4K.Manzardo, 1B	1-5	1	0	2
5D.Schneemann, 3B	1-4	1	0	1
6T.Bazzana, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
7B.Rocchio, SS	2-4	1	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	2-5	1	1	3
9P.Halpin, CF	1-4	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Lugo, P	102	4	5	4
LD.Lynch, P	15	1	2	0
RA.Lange, P	20	1	1	1
RE.Cerantola, P	44	2	3	3
RN.Mears, P	23	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	2-5	0	0	1
2B.Witt, SS	4-4	1	1	1
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	1-5	1	1	1
4S.Perez, DH	0-5	0	0	0
5C.Jensen, C	1-4	1	0	0
6J.Caglianone, RF	1-5	0	0	0
7I.Collins, LF	1-2	1	0	0
8M.Massey, 2B	1-2	1	0	0
8N.Loftin, PH	1-1	0	0	1
8N.Loftin, 2B	1-1	0	0	1
9K.Isbel, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9L.Thomas, PH	0-0	0	0	1
9L.Thomas, CF	0-0	0	0	1