We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
I wrote about Columbus/Buffalo and Jacksonville/Gwinnett on Action Network earlier in the week, and the analysis there should still play this weekend. Let’s take a look at a couple of different series here.
Omaha Storm Chasers @ Indianapolis Indians
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
I can’t figure out how Indianapolis is only 12-21 with this roster.
Some of it is bad luck and bad close-game variance, and typically, we see that shake out over the course of the season. The Indians will be loaded in the pitching department this week, which should help Indianapolis surge closer to .500.
This should be a two-start week for Jared Jones, who will make a rehab start on Tuesday night and likely get the ball again on Sunday.
Jones broke out in 2024 for the Pirates but missed all of 2025 with a UCL injury that required surgery. He needed an extended spring as he continued to work his way back, but finally made a rehab start for Single-A Bradenton last week and went three perfect innings with five strikeouts, consistently hitting 98 MPH with his fastball.
He’s looked good enough that it looks like the Pirates decided to skip High-A and Double-A, but there’s no way he heads back to Pittsburgh without making at least two more rehab starts, which makes me confident we will see him twice this week.
If he throws the ball as well as he did in Bradenton, I don’t think Omaha is hitting much.
On top of Jones’ rehab, Indianapolis just got a slew of pitching back from the Pirates that I think will play at the Triple-A level.
Hunter Barco was sent back down. I think the goal is for him to be a starter, and he looked great over the weekend (as he always has at the Triple-A level). Wilber Dotel is back at Triple-A to work on his command, but at this level, his stuff is so nasty that he’s going to get away with more misses than he could in the big leagues.
The Pirates went out and signed a couple of guys, which means Cam Sanders is back at Triple-A, along with new signee Chris Devenski.
This group might not have caught on at the big league level yet, but at Triple-A, that’s a decent stable of pitching.
The Indianapolis lineup has underachieved all year, but I think they benefit from Jared Triolo’s return to the big leagues, which means Nick Yorke is being sent to Indianapolis to make room. Yorke put up huge numbers at Triple-A during his time in Worcester and in Indianapolis prior to his Pirates call-up.
A lineup of Yorke alongside Ronny Simon, Esmerlyn Valdez, Rafael Flores, Alika Williams, and Temarr Johnson should be a highly productive one.
Omaha has a couple of respectable bullpen arms, but the Storm Chasers don’t have a particularly deep starting rotation.
Once Omaha burns Eric Cerantona and Beck Way (relievers), the rest of this Omaha pen can be had.
I expect Indianapolis will have a solid week.
Pick: Indianapolis Indians ML
Reno Aces @ Sacramento River Cats
Tuesday, 9:45 PM ET
Sutter Health Park never gets a day off as the A’s hit the road and we see the primary tenant, the River Cats, return home for a series with Reno.
The only problem is that Sacramento enters the week without the services of Bryce Eldridge and Jesus Rodriguez, who were both called up to the Giants.
Sacramento’s lineup has overachieved to this point in the season, so I think this week might be the sweet spot to fade the River Cats, as they are due some regression and just lost their top two offensive players.
I also haven’t been that impressed with Sacramento’s pitching (relative to last season when the River Cats were loaded with starting pitching) outside of Carson Whisenhunt, but even Whisenhunt has been priced up extremely high in his starts (which is now hard to justify since Sacramento will have a far worse lineup).
The Diamondbacks recently signed veteran Carlos Santana, so he’s down in Reno for the time being and had a great game on Sunday.
Reno is also loaded with top prospects as LuJames Groover, Ryan Wladischmidt, and Tommy Troy continue to be one of the best young trios in the PCL so far this year.
Reno hasn’t had much pitching, which is why this loaded Aces team comes into the week just 17-16, but I think the Aces get a reprieve here as Sacramento is one of the few places in the PCL that doesn’t have altitude, and the River Cats will have as watered-down a lineup as they have had all year.
I think this all sets up nicely for Reno to have a great week, and the prices to back the Aces in this series should be favorable.
Pick: Reno Aces ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- Indianapolis Indians ML (vs. Omaha, 6:35 PM ET)
- Reno Aces ML (@ Sacramento, 9:45 PM ET)
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