Pirates vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2026

I’m backing the Pirates F5 innings moneyline tonight, and this is a spot where our model sees a much bigger starting pitching advantage than the market. We have Pittsburgh winning the first five 4.11-2.30, which comes out to a -334 fair moneyline price. The biggest reason I’m comfortable backing Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft. He has been absolutely dominant lately. Ashcraft is coming off back to back starts of at least eight innings while allowing one run or fewer, including a complete game against Miami followed by eight innings of one run ball against Detroit. In that Detroit start, he needed just 80 pitches to get through eight innings while allowing five hits, zero walks, and one earned run. More importantly, I don’t think Ashcraft’s success is a fluke. His underlying numbers have supported him all season. He owns a 3.24 xERA and 3.47 FIP, while his SIERA was sitting around 3.32 entering this recent dominant stretch. He’s also striking out over 26% of hitters while walking only around 5.5%. That’s exactly what I want to see when looking at xERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA. The advanced metrics back up the fact that Ashcraft has legitimately pitched at a high level rather than simply benefiting from luck. On the other side, Robbie Ray continues to be a fade target of mine. I know the surface numbers look good with a 3.20 ERA, and he’s coming off a strong start against the Mets, but I’m much more interested in what the underlying numbers are telling us. Ray has a 4.61 FIP and 4.59 xFIP, both more than a full run higher than his ERA. That is a massive gap and exactly the type of profile I want to sell high on. He’s also walking over 10% of hitters, and eventually it becomes difficult to continue pitching around that many free passes. Ray has definitely pitched better over his last couple outings, but one or two good starts don’t change my opinion of the overall profile. His ERA says 3.20, while the ERA estimators are telling us he has pitched much closer to a mid 4.00 ERA arm. That regression is something I’ve been waiting to attack, and I like the spot for Pittsburgh to get to him early. Give me the Pirates F5 innings moneyline

Write up coming actionnetwork.com

(B365) Have Ashcraft rated 1.5 runs better than Ray (all est > 4.5). Ashcraft has a 50+ point split, SD few quality LHBs. Give SDP small offensive edge, 20 FRV edge. PIT proj. 10 BRR edge. SDP top pen estimators L30 days, but PIT 4th. SP edge too big to overcome.