We have a 10-game slate to start the week, and plenty of MLB action tonight.
Our staff of baseball bettors has expert picks for five contests, starting with Rockies vs. Nationals (6:45 PM ET) at Nationals Park and finishing at 9:40 PM ET, with three of the latest games: Pirates vs. Padres at Petco Park, Cubs vs. Diamondbacks at Chase Field, and Phillies vs. Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Rockies vs Nationals Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the total for this Rockies vs. Nationals matchup.
BARTOLO projects the Rockies for 3.42 runs and the Nationals for 4.31 today, which would bring the total under the line.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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Chris Prince's Rangers vs White Sox Best Bet
By Chris Prince
Munetaka Murakami has been in a bit of a funk over the past week or so, which presents us with a nice buy-low spot here against Rangers starter Kumar Rocker.
Over Rocker's last four starts, he has given up 27 hits and 14 earned runs. He also has struggled with lefties this season, allowing a .363 wOBA, .203 ISO, and 56.7% hard-contact rate
Murakami has been one of the best hitters in baseball among players with at least 250 plate appearances against RHP this season, ranking 7th in wOBA (.399) and leading the entire league in ISO (.333).
Strikeouts are always a concern with the White Sox 1B, but that should get negated a bit here, as Rocker has just a 20.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-116)
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John Feltman's Pirates vs Padres Best Bet
By John Feltman
I’m laying the -130 with Pittsburgh in the first five innings. This is a spot where I want to back the better starter and keep the Pirates’ bullpen out of the handicap.
The matchup also sets up well for Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Padres SP Robbie Ray has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing 14 of his first 15 home runs to righties. The Pirates can load up on right-handed bats and make him work early, which is where his walk issues become a real problem.
The handicap is pretty straightforward here. Braxton Ashcraft is throwing strikes, missing bats, and pitching deep, while Ray is living on an ERA that doesn’t match his xERA, FIP, or command profile.
Pittsburgh has the platoon advantage and enough right-handed firepower to put pressure on him early.
I’m not interested in sweating out the full game. Give me Ashcraft and the Pirates through five tonight in San Diego.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML (-130)
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Jon Anderson's Cubs vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
Cubs fans haven't been encouraged by what they've gotten from Kevin Gausman since the trade. He's given up 11 runs in his three starts and has failed to complete five innings in his last two. The Diamondbacks lineup is still without Ketel Marte, but they still project as a tough lineup to be efficient against.
And it's Merrill Kelly on the Arizona side, a guy with a 5.27 SIERA this year. Kelly's given up 26 homers this year, the fifth-most in baseball, and he's up against the lineup with the fourth-most homers in baseball this year.
There should be some offense in this one. The matchups are bad for both pitchers, and my projections don't favor either. The Cubs are #3 in projected runs for me, and the D'Backs are #7. So I'm taking the over 9 runs here easily.
Pick: Over 9 (-112)
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Derek Carty's Phillies vs Mariners Prop Pick
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Logan Gilbert's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting the Mariners starter to record 16.76 pitching outs against the Phillies, while oddsmakers are implying 18.16.
The model believes there is a 53% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs, so there is value on the under at +149. This play is good down to at least +108.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 Outs (+149)
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