The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 24, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -110 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are -110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Padres Prediction
- Pirates vs Padres Pick: Pirates F5 ML (-130)
My Pirates vs Padres best bet is on Pittsburgh Moneyline after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Padres Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -183 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
- Pirates vs Padres moneyline: Pirates -110, Padres -110
- Pirates vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Pirates vs Padres spread: Pirates -1.5 (+150), Padres +1.5 (-183)
Pirates vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Robbie Ray (LHP, SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 11-7 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.68 / 3.37 | ERA / xERA | 3.20 / 4.61 |
| 3.59 / 3.18 | FIP / xFIP | 4.59 / 4.84 |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | 8.5% |
| 45.6% | GB% | 34.5% |
| .280 | BABIP | .254 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 108 | Location+ | 91 |
Pirates vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Braxton Ashcraft has been dealing lately, while Robbie Ray’s 3.20 ERA looks a lot better than the rest of his profile.
Ashcraft has given up just two runs over his last 17 innings and has gone at least eight innings in both starts. He punched out 10 against Miami, then followed it up with eight innings of one-run, no-walk ball against Detroit. That’s not just a couple of lucky outings, as he’s been pounding the zone, missing bats and keeping traffic off the bases.
The 97-mph average fastball is sizzling, his strikeout rate is sitting at a solid 26.4%, and his .285 expected wOBA allowed backs up his recent success. Most importantly, Ashcraft has been attacking the zone consistently and has not allowed many free passes.
Getting Oneil Cruz back only adds more juice to the Pittsburgh side. Before the injury, Cruz was hitting .312 with a .506 slugging percentage against lefties, and he has already made an impact since returning. He gives the Pirates another dangerous bat who can punish Ray if he falls behind in the count.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Ray is the guy I’m looking to fade.
The 3.20 ERA is shiny, but the underlying numbers are waving red flags. His 4.59 xERA and FIP north of 4.00 suggest he’s been getting away with more than he should, and the biggest issue is the command.
Ray’s 11.1% walk rate is among the highest for qualified starters, and with his strikeout rate trending down, those extra baserunners are becoming harder to erase.
His last start against the Mets shouldn’t convince anyone that everything has suddenly clicked. Ray gave up plenty of hard contact and needed a huge defensive play from Fernando Tatis Jr., who robbed what could have been a grand slam.
Without that robbery, the final line looks a lot uglier. That outing showed Ray can still wiggle out of trouble, and he should have been punished for another shaky outing.
Pirates vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m laying the -130 with Pittsburgh in the first five. This is a spot where I want to back the better starter and avoid making the Pirates’ bullpen part of the handicap.
The matchup also sets up well for Pittsburgh’s lineup. Ray has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing 14 of his first 15 home runs to righties. The Pirates can load up on right-handed bats and make him work early, which is where his walk issues become a real problem.
The handicap is pretty straightforward here. Ashcraft is throwing strikes, missing bats and pitching deep, while Ray is living on an ERA that doesn’t match his xERA, FIP or command profile.
Pittsburgh has the platoon advantage and enough right-handed firepower to put pressure on him early.
I’m not interested in sweating out the full game. Give me Ashcraft and the Pirates through five tonight in San Diego.
Pick: Pirates F5 Moneyline
