The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on May 3, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Yankees are favored by -220 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +180 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees Pick: Over 8.5 -115 | Play to 9
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -220 |
- Orioles vs Yankees moneyline: Orioles +180, Yankees -220
- Orioles vs Yankees over/under: 8.5 (-115 / -105)
- Orioles vs Yankees spread: +1.5 (-120), -1.5 (+100)
Orioles vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Trey Gibson (MiLB) | Stat | Max Fried (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 4-1 |
| N/A | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.01 | ERA / xERA | 2.09/2.24 |
| 4.50/4.01 | FIP / xFIP | 2.74/3.91 |
| 11.4 | K-BB% | 14.1 |
| 47.4 | GB% | 45.2 |
| .338 | BABIP | .200 |
| N/A | Stuff+ | 106 |
| N/A | Location+ | 104 |
Orioles vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Birds in Need of a Breakout
It has yet to show in this series, but Baltimore's lineup is poised to be one of the most potent in baseball.
Thus far, against lefties, the Orioles have done damage, posting above-average hard-hit rates and flyball rates.
While their strikeout numbers are a bit high, their high walk rate and above-average chase rate show they are more disciplined than they've been given credit for.
So, while all this suggests that they have success against lefties moving forward, having success against Max Fried is easier said than done.
Although Fried has been fortunate to work around command issues. Fried's walk rate is way up, and his first pitch strike rate is abysmal.
If the Orioles can remain disciplined, we should see them produce in hitter's counts.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Tough Assignment For Gibson
In contrast to Baltimore, the Yankees' bats have come alive in this series, putting up 15 runs across the first two games.
The Yankees are now leading the majors in ISO and hard-hit rate. It's safe to say they are a tall task for any starter, let alone one making his major league debut.
Trey Gibson is set to take the ball for the Orioles for the first time after throwing 239 innings in his minor league career. While he has a long track record and was the Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2025, his numbers don't point to much success against a dangerous lineup like the one he's set to face.
Gibson had a career minor league ERA of 3.99 and a relatively high BABIP in Triple-A. We may see him have success the first time through, but it's much more likely the Yankees will give him a rude welcome to the big leagues.
Orioles vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
The Orioles have been searching for answers on the mound this season, and while Gibson has promise, the Yankees are a horrible matchup for his debut.
We should expect their thunderous offense to stay hot as they may need to mash their way to another victory.
Fried's command issues are bound to come back and bite him. The Orioles have a ton of right-handed power with the potential to make any mistakes show up on the scoreboard.
Take the over as these lineups should trade haymakers.
Pick: Over 8.5 -115 | Play to 9
