Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today's slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, September 18.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Boston Red Sox ML (+105)
- Washington Nationals ML (-104)
- Twins/Angels Over 8.5 runs (-102)
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Ranger Suarez and Ian Seymour face off in a battle of southpaws down in Tampa. Despite the Rays' 10 1/2 game lead in the standings, Boston has the advantage to start this game. The Red Sox' offense ranks sixth-best against LHP (107 wRC+), while the Rays' offense ranks 19th (92 wRC+) against them.
The Rays' offense (117 wRC+) is much better than Boston's (74 wRC+) in the past two weeks, but they are even throughout the past month.
Ranger Suarez's ERA is a full run lower than Seymour's, but both have similar peripheral metrics between xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. Seymour has better results at home (3.75 ERA), while Suarez has better results on the road (2.95 ERA). The pitching matchup is strong, regardless of name value, and even.
Nevertheless, the Red Sox' offensive advantage vs. LHP, along with their recent activation of lefty-masher Willson Contreras, makes them the better bet today, especially at plus odds.
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (+105)
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
Cade Cavalli is having a spectacular breakout season. His 3.12 ERA and peripheral stats this year are excellent, but his stretch since striking out 13 batters in Boston on June 30 may have elevated him to a top-tier starter.
Cavalli since June 30: 81 1/3 IP, 2.21 ERA, 2.80 xERA, 3.13 FIP, 2.38 xFIP, 54.9% GB, 27.5% K-BB
These are numbers a fantasy baseball player would desire from a first-round pick at SP. The Nationals have developed their former first-round pick into a star, and he continues to shine. Cavalli is not only posting elite rate stats, but he is pitching deep into games. Eighteen of Cavalli's 31 starts have gone at least six innings. 12 of these 18 have come since his June 30 domination.
Meanwhile, opposing starter Kyle Leahy is having a breakout of his own since mid-June.
Leahy since June 18: 71 IP, 2.15 ERA, 3.21 xERA, 2.46 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 46.8% GB, 22.6% K-BB
These numbers are roughly on par with Cavalli. However, Leahy has not thrown five innings in a game since August 18, with his last six-inning start coming on July 31. The 29-year-old SP only threw 88 IP last season and is up to 135 in 2026. St. Louis is limiting Leahy's innings after losing ground in the NL playoff race.
Washington's offense (100 wRC+) is better than the Cardinals' this season (94 wRC+) against RHP, and their bullpens have been similar over the past two weeks. Furthermore, the Cardinals' overall offensive advantage in the past month has dwindled in the past two weeks. The Nationals' pitching advantage, with Cavalli possibly doubling Leahy's innings for the day, puts them ahead.
Pick: Washington Nationals ML (-104)
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Pick
The Twins and Angels face off in the second game of this series with limited bullpens on both sides. Thursday's extra-innings game forced both teams to utilize a significant number of relievers after their respective starters each pitched seven innings.
The two teams used nine relievers combined between the 8th and 10th innings. While the Angels did not use any reliever in back-to-back games, they have relied on top RPs Taylor Saucedo and Ben Joyce in several recent games. Also, closer Ben Joyce has not pitched in back-to-back games this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery.
The Twins are the team in more trouble if their starter cannot provide length. Top relievers Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, and Andrew Morris have all pitched in four of the past six games.
Closer Yoendrys Gomez has pitched in three straight and will surely be unavailable for tonight. Lefty Kody Funderburk has also pitched in four of the past six games, but he has only thrown seven combined pitches in his past three outings.
Today's starters, Connor Prielipp and Grayson Rodriguez, have a combined 11.34 ERA. This stat alone does not justify taking an over, yet we can find that Prielipp performs worse on the road (6.24 ERA) and Rodriguez performs worse at home (7.54 ERA).
Rodriguez and Prielipp have both pitched well in the past month, but Prielipp has benefitted from pitching after an opener, while Rodriguez has faced easy competition. The Twins' offense is not at full strength following the loss of star OF Byron Buxton, but they are still one of the top offenses in baseball against RHP (107 wRC+), and they just called up top OF prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez.
Both Jenkins and Rodriguez are left-handed hitters. This could cause trouble in a lineup with multiple switch hitters to target Rodriguez and his egregious stats against lefties. The former star SP prospect is allowing a .401 wOBA and 1.88 WHIP against left-handed bats.
Opposing starter Connor Priellip is a reverse-split SP, but he can still get exposed if the Twins opt to start him due to their limited relief options. This is a prime spot for the over in a hitter-friendly stadium with the wind blowing out.
Pick: Twins/Angels Over 8.5 runs (-102)
