Brewers vs Blue Jays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, June 1
Via David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field on May 26, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Blue Jays defeated the Twins 3-1.
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Odds
+100 / -122
|Blue Jays Odds|
+100 / -122
The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays will conclude their series this afternoon with a fantastic pitching matchup. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for the Brewers as he looks for a bounce-back effort after getting roughed up in his last start.
However, he'll have a tough matchup as Kevin Gausman will toe the slab for the Blue Jays. Gausman has pitched his way into Cy Young contention, as he's looked nearly impossible to hit at times.
Whichever pitcher wins the duel on the mound will likely lead his team to victory. However, our betting angle for Brewers vs. Blue Jays will not be a side but rather a way to back both of them to succeed.
The Brewers lineup came out of the gates very hot as the likes of Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson carried the club. Unfortunately, those two have cooled off significantly, and so has the rest of the lineup.
The Brewers are hitting just .230 as a team, and they rank in the bottom 3% of the league in Average Exit Velocity. For all the power throughout their lineup, they have not been producing a ton of hard contact, and they will continue to struggle this afternoon.
Kevin Gausman has been electric this season, and his numbers show it. His Strikeout Rate ranks in the 89th percentile, and his Whiff Rate is even higher in the 95th percentile.
He is in a prime position to feast against this struggling Brewers lineup that is not only failing to make hard contact but also striking out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors.
The Blue Jays' lineup is formidable, and they are beginning to turn it around after a slow start. The Jays enter this matchup hitting .265 as a team, but they have the second-highest xBA in the majors.
Last season, they were the top lineup in the league in terms of contact, as they led the majors in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate. However, they may not make any more progress today as Freddy Peralta has been tough to hit.
After dealing with injuries last year, Peralta's stuff is the best it has ever been. His fastball is up over 2 mph, and his slider is one of the best in baseball, as it has a 47% Whiff Rate.
His stuff has yet to produce the best results, but he is due for positive regression. Peralta ranks in the top 25% of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate. If he can limit the walks this afternoon, he should put together a stellar performance.
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
This matchup is about the men on the mound, as when both of them are at their best, they will severely limit hard contact.
Gausman should silence the Milwaukee lineup with his splitter, and on the other side, Peralta has the upper hand as well. His stuff has been tough to square up, which is the key to containing the Blue Jays lineup. As long as Peralta doesn't fall behind in counts or hand out free passes, he and Gausman should be trading zeroes in the matchup.
Bet Under 4.5 Runs in the first five innings.