A month ago, this market looked all but decided in Shohei Ohtani's favor. Not anymore. Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has taken over as the Polymarket favorite for the 2026 MLB NL MVP, and the gap between the two keeps widening and narrowing by the week.
Crow-Armstrong is currently priced at 64% to win the award, with Ohtani sitting at 32%. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. remain in the field but barely: under 1% each. Volume on the contract has grown to more than $1.28 million, up from just over $1.2 million the last time this piece ran.
A Race That Keeps Changing Hands
Some of that back-and-forth traces to a rough patch Crow-Armstrong hit in mid-August, when he managed just four hits in 36 at-bats over eight games and briefly watched Ohtani retake the lead.
He answered on August 17 with a tenth-inning walk-off home run against the crosstown White Sox, his 30th of the season and his second straight 30-homer, 30-steal year, and the market swung back his way almost overnight.
Crow-Armstrong's Case
In his most recent line, Crow-Armstrong was hitting .281 with 30 home runs, 78 RBIs, 89 runs and 31 stolen bases, production that puts him at or near the top of the majors in FanGraphs' wins-above-replacement metric. Add in center-field defense that advanced fielding numbers rank among the best in the sport, and it's a combination NL MVP voters, who have leaned more heavily on advanced stats with each passing year, may find hard to look past.
Ohtani's Path Back to the Mound
Ohtani's resume hasn't lost any shine.
Two World Series rings, a 2023 World Baseball Classic title and MVP award with Japan, and four unanimous NL/AL MVP trophies all remain on the ledger, and this year's 8-2 record with a 1.79 ERA is still on the books from before his knee cut his pitching season short.
What's changed since his last start, on July 3, is patience: a lubricating injection during the All-Star break and a bullpen session on July 22 both triggered setbacks in the knee, on top of soreness in his throwing bicep.
Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes told The Athletic the club isn't forcing the schedule: "A lot of it, we just need to take our time and see if he comes in feeling good tomorrow, and then OK, what's the next step?" Ohtani has struck a similar note himself, saying "it's getting pretty good day by day" as he works through a throwing progression the team hopes puts him back on a mound in September.
Ohtani is hitting close to .290 with roughly 30 home runs and around 80 RBIs while anchoring a Dodgers lineup chasing a third straight World Series title.
When Does the Vote Actually Happen?
None of this changes the calendar.
BBWAA voters won't turn in real ballots until after the regular season, with the NL winner revealed on MLB Network; last year's announcement came November 13, and this Polymarket contract is set to resolve on or around November 12. There's still more than a month of games left to move the number, and this race has already shown how fast that can happen.
