The New York Mets host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 25, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +151 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Mets Prediction
- Brewers vs Mets Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
My Brewers vs Mets best bet is Over 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 7.5 -105o / -114u | -162 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 7.5 -105o / -114u | +151 |
- Brewers vs Mets moneyline: Brewers -162, Mets +151
- Brewers vs Mets over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -114u)
- Brewers vs Mets spread: Brewers -1.5 (+104), Mets +1.5 (-126)
Brewers vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Kyle Harrison (LHP, MIL) | Stat | Zac Thornton (LHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.84 / 3.11 | ERA / xERA | 3.04 / 4.85 |
| 3.24 / 3.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 4.11 |
| 23.9 | K-BB% | 11.0 |
| 37.7 | GB% | 40.8 |
| .295 | BABIP | .266 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 114 | Location+ | 94 |
Brewers vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
On paper, this looks like a really nice pitching matchup, Kyle Harrison against Zach Thornton.
Harrison, obviously, has been one of the best starting pitchers all year. He's the 17th best pitcher in baseball by Sean Zerillo's model. The cap against Harrison is less about him than about the rest of Milwaukee's pitching staff.
As good as Harrison's been, the Brewers simply don't let him go deep into games. He's a five-and-dive guy. Every single time out, in his last five starts, he has not gone past the fifth inning.
He did throw some gems in there. He had five shutout frames with eight strikeouts against the Mariners last time. He also went five shutout innings, with just one hit allowed and 10 Ks against the Pirates two starts ago.
But again, he's not going deep into games. And this Brewers bullpen is gassed right now. For example, we won't see Aaron Ashby tonight. He's thrown way too much over the last couple of days.
We're also very unlikely to see Chad Patrick, so that's two of the Brewers' best relievers. Abner Uribe is still on the IL.
So after Harrison leaves the game, we might see a lot of Bryse Wilson, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, and Grant Anderson, some of the weaker arms in that Milwaukee pen.
New York Mets Betting Preview
On the Mets side, Zach Thornton has been really impressive for the most part this season, but his underlying metrics scream regression. He's got a 3.04 ERA, but his weighted FIP is 4.49, and his xERA is 4.85.
We've already started to see a little bit of regression, but he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last five starts.
However, that's happened while giving up a ton of hits: 7, 7, 4, 6, and 6 hits in those five. So a lot of regression is coming for Thornton, and he'll be facing one of the best offenses in baseball in this Milwaukee machine.
The Mets bullpen obviously has left a lot to be desired all year. They turned it over a ton at the deadline, with a lot of questionable arms and not much experience behind Thornton right now.
Brewers vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm going with over 7.5 total runs tonight. Sean Zerillo's BARTOLO tool projects a favorable 4.6% edge on this option.
Real good chance for runs tonight in Queens, with neutral weather.
With the line at 7.5, given the surface-level numbers of Harrison and Thornton, I think we're getting really good value on the over in this Brewers vs. Mets matchup.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
