Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cubs vs. Padres: Betting Value Sitting on Over/Under in Matinee

Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cubs vs. Padres: Betting Value Sitting on Over/Under in Matinee article feature image

Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Martinez.

  • The Cubs take on the Padres in Wednesday's MLB matinee.
  • Keegan Thompson heads to the mound for Chicago, while San Diego will send Nick Martinez gets the ball for San Diego.
  • Charie DiStruco breaks down the game below and delivers his top betting pick.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds

Cubs Odds+150
Padres Odds-185
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres look to take home another series win Wednesday as they look to win their second consecutive game against the Chicago Cubs. The Padres earned a 5-4 win Tuesday despite an early exit for Mike Clevinger.

They now turn to 31-year-old Nick Martinez to round out the series, while the Cubs have yet to name a starter.  All signs point toward a bullpen day, with Mark Leiter Jr. having the first few innings.

So, can the San Diego win its second in a row and take the series or is Chicago a live underdog in this affair? Let's take a look.

Editor's note: Keegan Thompson will start for the Cubs in what is likely to still be a bullpen day.

Chicago Cubs

While the Cubs haven't named a starter, Leiter traveled with the team to San Diego as part of the taxi squad and will likely have first go.

Like his foe , Leiter returns to the big leagues after a few seasons away, but hasn't been a pretty 2022 for the right-handed pitcher.

While he hasn't given up any runs over his last three innings via two outings, he surrendered nine runs over 7 1/3 innings. His advanced metrics like xERA (5.48) and FIP (5.98) indicate he's a below-average arm, and ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in walk rate.

Leiter might be relied on for a few extra innings this time around as well. With Marcus Stroman on the injured list, the Cubs had to move around their rotation.

And Tuesday, Wade Miley made his season debut and threw just three innings. Expect a similar outing from Leiter, who will force the Cubs bullpen to work extra hard yet again in this contest.

The Cubs bullpen is right around average with a 3.46 ERA. It's important to note their current closer, David Robertson, was placed on the injured list.

Chicago has a couple of strong arms in the backend, but are otherwise inconsistent in the middle of games.

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San Diego Padres

Martinez has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball through his first five starts, where he has a 3.38 ERA. It's a great story — his last year in MLB was in 2017 and now he's back five years later — but it's hard to imagine he'll last an entire season with the Padres.

Take away Martinez's seven-inning outing against Miami and he's given up 21 hits and 12 walks over 19 2/3 innings. Only nine runs have been scored.

Martinez has stranded 90.6 percent of runners on base, an unsustainable number for even the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Opponents have an xBA of .283 against the righty, and all advanced metrics point toward inevitable negative regression.

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Despite his 3.38 ERA, his xERA (5.32) sits nearly two runs higher, and FIP is even worse (5.44). The 31-year-old's walk rate is at a career-low and he ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in barrel percentage. Meaning that the balls put into play are being hit hard, they've just ended up as outs.

All this to say that Martinez has been lucky not to have been blown up yet. I would expect that opponents will not hit .148 against the veteran journeyman with runners in scoring position for much longer.

Offensively, the Padres rank around the middle of the pack in wRC+ and on-base percentage. Eric Hosmer (172 wRC+) has been great after nearly being traded and Manny Machado (211 wRC+) is playing like an MVP candidate.

Outside of that duo, the rest of the team has lagged behind with Fernando Tatis Jr. still sidelined.

Cubs-Padres Pick

To me, this game shapes up to be very similar to Tuesday's meeting. Starting pitching should be jumped on early and bullpen days are inevitable.

While Martinez has been able to often escape jams, it's only a matter of time before a team gets to him. He pitches to contact and both his xBA (.283) and xERA (5.35) is alarming.

Tack on the fact that the Cubs will have a bullpen day and I think San Diego should be able to score some runs itself. If Leiter gets tagged with the start, he won't go deep into the game and the only Chicago arms I'd be worried about are in the back end.

I lean toward the Cubs in this matchup as live underdogs, and I they are worth a consideration, but I'm eyeing the total in this game. I think it's a shade low and think both offenses should be able to score some runs yet again.

Pick: Total Over 7.5 Runs (Play to 8 at -110)

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