The Miami Marlins host the Boston Red Sox on August 25, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -158 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction
- Red Sox vs Marlins Pick: Red Sox ML (-158)
My Red Sox vs Marlins best bet is on Boston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Marlins Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -158 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +146 |
- Red Sox vs Marlins moneyline: Red Sox -158, Marlins +146
- Red Sox vs Marlins over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Red Sox vs Marlins spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+104), Marlins +1.5 (-125)
Red Sox vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) | Stat | Tyler Phillips (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.08 / 2.69 | ERA / xERA | 3.67 / 4.81 |
| 3.16 / 3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 4.54 / 4.45 |
| 20.9 | K-BB% | 8.5 |
| 36.0 | GB% | 45.9 |
| .280 | BABIP | .279 |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 99 | Location+ | 97 |
Red Sox vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
After dropping a series to the Pirates, the Red Sox have returned to their winning ways with back-to-back series triumphs over the Giants and Diamondbacks. Now, the Red Sox aim to make it three straight, this time against an NL East counterpart.
Boston will send Payton Tolle to the mound. In his rookie campaign, Tolle has grown into one of the league's top pitchers, posting a 3.08 ERA with a 2.69 xERA and 3.19 FIP.
So, why is Tolle so good? He throws absolute gas, averaging 96-100 on his four-seamer from the left side, leading to a dominant 10.05 K/9. Many young flamethrowers struggle with command, but not Tolle, as his BB/9 is a stout 2.48.
All you need to do is pull up Tolle's Baseball Savants page to perfectly illustrate his dominance. Plus, his Stuff+ is a 116, a mark that shows just how nasty Tolle is.
The hot Red Sox offense continues to play well, ranking third in MLB with a 118 wRC+ in their last 33 games. In that span, they rank top-10 in walk rate (9%), strikeout rate (20%), and home runs (33).
Five of Boston's regular starters have a wRC+ better than 120. Look no further than Nick Sogard and Caleb Durbin as the reason for Boston's offensive resurgence. Both put the bat on the ball, can hit for occasional power, and walk at a high rate.
That pair is the perfect group to surround big boppers like Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu, the ideal mix of contact and power atop Boston's lineup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Last time this turn in the rotation came around for the Marlins, they went with a bullpen game instead of letting Tyler Phillips take the start. Phillips still tossed a pair of innings later in the game, but he was the fifth pitcher to check into the game.
I can't say either route is very encouraging. If they roll with Phillips, that means Miami will have to deal with his impending regression, as his 4.81 xERA and 4.64 FIP look a lot worse than his 3.67 ERA.
The underlying numbers are ugly, too. Phillips gets hit hard, ranking in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and ninth in hard-hit rate.
Between Phillips's inability to get whiffs and how hard he gets hit, he could struggle heavily against this lineup.
Now, if the Marlins choose to go with a full bullpen game, that's also a concern. After dealing a few key cogs at the deadline, Miami's bullpen has taken a nosedive to 18th in bullpen ERA over their last 68 innings.
Sandy Alcantara pitched seven innings on Monday, which could prompt Clayton McCollough to go with a pen game.
Miami has been about a league-average offense all year, and it sits 17th in the league with a 96 wRC+ over the past month. While the Marlins have shown they can draw walks (9% walk rate), they also punch out at 23% in that time.
If you want an idea of what the Marlins lineup could look like against Tolle, look no further than yesterday when they faced Ranger Suarez.
One of the biggest threats in the lineup is Kyle Stowers, who returned from injury on Monday, but he can't hit southpaws. That's a common theme for the Marlins, who have to platoon since Owen Cassie and Griffin Conine usually don't play against southpaws.
Although Estuery Ruiz is somehow running a .900 OPS against lefties, not having Conine in the lineup is a boost for Boston.
Red Sox vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
I think anything below -165 is a solid number for Boston here. Winning road games in MLB can be difficult, but everything here points to the road team.
Tolle is a stud and a budding star against a lineup that struggles to hit left-handed pitching overall and also has some swing-and-miss issues.
Go with Boston here.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-158, FanDuel)
