Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, August 25.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rangers Moneyline -120 (FanDuel, Play to -130)
- Orioles Moneyline +112 (FanDuel, Play to +105)
Rangers vs White Sox Picks
With wins in four of their last five, the Rangers have climbed atop the soft AL West and have a good opportunity to remain there through Tuesday’s slate, with Jacob deGrom taking the mound against Anthony Kay.
DeGrom enters off a dominant outing against the Nationals in which he allowed just one hit while striking out 10 over six scoreless innings, and the future Hall-of-Famer certainly still offers a starting pitching edge over Kay.
Throughout his last 50 innings, DeGrom holds an xERA of 3.48 and an xFIP of 2.81. He's struck-out 12.24 batters per nine in that span, and holds a Pitching+ rating of 117.
While Kay holds a superior ERA than DeGrom throughout his last ten starts, Kay's underlying results are much less convincing, as he holds an xFIP of 4.19 and a strikeout minus walk-rate of 11.9%.
Texas has hit to a 127 wRC+ since June 1 and owns a .352 wOBA over that span. While the lineup is far from overpowering on paper, particularly with Josh Jung sidelined, the actual results have been encouraging.
That makes this a favorable matchup for the Rangers, who hold the clear starting-pitching advantage with Jacob deGrom on the mound against a White Sox lineup that has posted below-average numbers against right-handed pitching in the second half.
-120 appears to be a very livable number to ride with DeGrom, who enters off one of his best starts of the season, and has seemingly been due for positive regression over the last two months.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -120 (FanDuel, Play to -130)
Orioles vs Cardinals Picks
The Orioles managed a 5-5 record throughout a very strenuous ten-game stretch that featured seven matchups versus the Rays and three versus the Yankees, keeping their hopes of stealing a playoff spot moderately realistic.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have played to a 22-28 record since July 1st, as their production has sputtered after a surprisingly strong start to the season.
Though not too many people will be keen to back Chris Bassitt in 2026, the right-hander is backed by a lineup that has been very hard on lefties of late and that should fare quite well versus Matt Liberatore.
Baltimore holds a 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since July 1st and ranks first in MLB with a 41.8% hard-hit rate during that span.
Losing Adley Rutschman certainly lowers the lineup's upside, but part of the Orioles' thinking in looking toward the future and dealing Rutschman was the belief that Samuel Basallo is a legitimate offensive talent. Basallo is now back in the lineup following a lengthy absence, giving Baltimore another potential source of production.
Through a hefty sample of 125 innings Liberatore has struggled to an ERA of 5.04 with a WHIP of 1.44, and he's been hard-hit 41.7% of the time while walking 8.1% of batters faced. The Cardinals have hit to a wRC+ of 92 versus right-handed pitching since June 1st, slugging just .371 while ranking 19th in expected weighted on-base average in that span.
Without overselling Bassitt, he's still managed to limit hard contact fairly effectively with his deep arsenal of pitch mixes and shapes, as he has a barrel rate of just 4.4% and been hard-hit just 35.8% of the time.
His stuff is far from overpowering and things can go south in a hurry when he's not commanding his curveball, but that's a livable concern with the Orioles priced as underdogs versus Liberatore and a stale offense.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline +112 (FanDuel, Play to +105)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 25
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rangers Moneyline -120 (FanDuel, Play to -130)
- Orioles Moneyline +112 (FanDuel, Play to +105)
