Dodgers vs. White Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Gonsolin Makes Los Angeles the Pick in Windy City (Wednesday, June 8)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Gonsolin.
- The Dodgers are favored tonight in Chicago against the White Sox.
- Tony Gonsolin looks to continue his strong start to 2022 opposite Johnny Cueto.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Dodgers vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||+150|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Chicago White Sox opened up a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-0 win on Tuesday night. Chicago scored all four runs in the sixth inning of what was a pitcher-dominant affair.
The Dodgers will look to bounce back tonight behind Tony Gonsolin, who has been nothing short of stellar in 2022. He’ll take on the veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto, who will make his fifth start for the White Sox.
Gonsolin Leading the Los Angeles Rotation
Tony Gonsolin has arguably been the Dodgers’ best pitcher in 2022.
The 28-year-old has a 1.59 ERA over 10 starts, holding opponents to a .209 xBA and .330xSLG. He’s cut down on his walks and ranks in the top 2% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate.
The biggest difference from this season to last has been that Gonsolin is throwing his splitter more frequently — .125 BAA — and cutting down on his fastball usage.
Gonsolin has forced more ground balls in 2022 — 47.2 percent — and established himself as a reliable arm for Los Angeles. His 2.60 xERA ranks in the top 10% of the majors.
As for the Dodgers offense, it hasn’t missed a beat this season. Through two months, Los Angeles ranks first in wOBA and walk rate and third in wRC+. The Dodgers do perform slightly better on the road and against right-handed pitching, though the splits aren’t drastic in the slightest.
It’s worth noting that closer Craig Kimbrel is on paternity leave and will miss this game.
Chicago White Sox
Yes, Johnny Cueto is still kicking it at age 36 for the Chicago White Sox.
Through four starts in 2022, the veteran right-hander has a 2.92 ERA, a walk rate below 7%, and he has even cut down his HR/9 to 0.36.
Cueto forces a lot more ground balls — in fact, he throws his sinker 31% of the time, up from 15 percent last season — swapping it in his arsenal with the four-seam fastball.
But there are some slight concerns when it comes to Cueto. While his velocity hasn’t dipped, opponents are seeing the right-hander well. They have a .287 xBA and both his xERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.91) sit just shy of 4.00.
Since his 12 shutout innings to begin the season, Cueto has given up eight runs over his last 12 2/3 innings. He’s not generating swings and misses and his hard-hit rate is above 42%, which is not a great recipe when facing a daunted offense like the Dodgers.
Dodgers-White Sox Pick
To me, this is the perfect bounce-back spot for the Dodgers after an abysmal series opener that saw them shut out.
Cueto is not Michael Kopech — not even close. He can’t blow by hitters and ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in whiff rate. Tack on his career-worst .287 xBA in 2022 — against one of the best offenses in baseball — and the Dodgers should be able to score early and often.
His counterpart on Wednesday night, Gonsolin, shouldn’t have too difficult a time. The White Sox rank 24th in wRC+, 26th in isolated power and 27th in wOBA.
One of Chicago’s best players, Tim Anderson, is also on the injured list, leaving this offense even more limited.
All this to say that I think the Dodgers hold value over the first five innings spread. From both an offensive and pitching standpoint, Los Angeles holds a stark advantage and should have no problem putting away the White Sox on the road.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-120, to -130)