Giants vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Kelly, Arizona at Home (Wednesday, July 6)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly.
- Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks take on Alex Cobb and the San Francisco Giants in an NL West matchup on Wednesday night.
- Kelly has essentially been gold for Arizona, while San Francisco's bullpen has taken it out of games time and again.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down this divisional matchup below and shares his top betting pick.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Desperate for a win to prevent a further fall down the standings, the Giants will try one more time to nab a victory in Arizona on Wednesday night.
They’ll send one of their reclamation projects to the hill to square off with one of the Diamondbacks’ top arms. How will it go? Let’s try to figure that out.
Giants Bullpen Continues to Choke
When it rains, it pours.
The Giants were in complete control of Tuesday’s game against the Diamondbacks with a 2-1 lead through 7.5 frames. Then, the impossible happened.
Dominic Leone stepped in and allowed two runs on two hits and two walks to forfeit the lead before Daulton Varsho landed the knockout blow in the form of a three-run home run off of closer Camilo Doval.
Sadly for San Francisco, this wasn’t a stunning twist. While the Giants’ bullpen has been a big strength in years past, it has ranked 24th this season with a 4.31 ERA. Over the past two weeks, it has an ugly mark of 5.40 to rank 25th.
It’s particularly irritating for the Giants considering their rotation is in the top 10 in staff ERA over those same 14 days.
That’s where Alex Cobb steps in.
The Giants acquired him over the offseason in hopes of making him their next transformation into an effective starter, and to this point, it really hasn’t worked out considering he owns a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts.
Many will point to the fact that Cobb has a 2.51 xERA and a low .319 xwOBA on contact, claiming things will turn around for the lefty. That may be true in time, but so far we’ve seen nothing from him.
Merrill Kelly’s Success is No Fluke
On the other side, we have Merrill Kelly, whose pretty decent peripherals have lined up with his successful 2022 season. He hasn’t really boasted great strikeout or walk numbers — coming in right below league average — but he’s been incredible at pitching to contact this year.
Kelly’s 36.2% hard-hit rate and .354 xwOBA on contact are career-bests, and both would classify as firmly above-average marks. The same can be said for his 3.57 xERA, which ranks in the top 35% of baseball.
Arizona has actually been above-average at the plate over the last two weeks with a 102 wRC+, and that’s been driven by a stellar .174 ISO (for Arizona’s standards).
The Diamondbacks rank atop the league in contact rate in the last two weeks as well, which will make for a very interesting matchup with Cobb. They’ve managed to find ways to dink-and-dunk teams to death.
Here’s what I see. I see an Arizona team with a .266 batting average on balls in play over the last two weeks and a .260 batting average on balls in play for the season.
It’s not as if this lineup is getting lucky; it’s just done a very good job of scoring runs with soft contact and has managed to get good traffic on the basepaths with a walk rate near 10% in the last 14 days.
This isn’t good news for Cobb. While his pitch-to-contact numbers are pretty solid, it’s not as if the Diamondbacks will shy away from this challenge. They’ve picked up hits without many hard-hit balls in the last two weeks, so Cobb won’t be getting anywhere with them.
Kelly should feast here on a Giants team ranked 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks considering the type of mood he’s been in. I feel even better about things considering how bad San Francisco’s bullpen has been.
On top of that, it likely won’t have its best reliever (or its best reliever will be tired).
Pick: Diamondbacks ML +110