We have a full 15-game slate on Saturday, August 15, starting with White Sox vs Tigers at Comerica Park at 1:10 PM ET and closing with Brewers vs Dodgers at 7:15 PM ET at Dodger Stadium.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for today's slate.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's White Sox vs Tigers Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
The Chicago White Sox hand the ball to left-hander Anthony Kay, who should serve as a good fade candidate. A first-round draft pick in 2016, Kay has never found his footing in MLB.
He struggled mightily as a reliever through his first five seasons before the White Sox took a chance on him this year. Chicago has attempted to turn him into a starting pitcher, with little success.
Through 24 appearances, Kay owns a 3.96 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even more concerning.
Entering this matchup, Kay owns a 5.08 xERA and a .263 xBA. He also ranks in the 19th percentile in strikeout rate, 26th percentile in barrel rate and 39th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The clear pitching advantage goes to the Detroit Tigers, who hand the ball to right-hander Troy Melton. Named the organization’s Rookie of the Year in 2025, Melton has improved further this season and looks like a potential ace moving forward.
Through 13 starts this season, Melton is 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive.
This season, Melton ranks in the top quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the White Sox, a team he has dominated.
In four meetings, Melton is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.
That leaves the hitting, which is relatively even. This season, both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game and slugging percentage.
If anything, Detroit holds a slight advantage in this department as well. Entering this matchup, the Tigers rank ahead of the White Sox in hits per game, batting average and on-base percentage.
With an even wider gap on the mound, Detroit is the team to back.
Pick: Tigers ML (-150 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Nationals vs Mets Best Bet
By Sean Paul
In a year of total disarray in Queens, it's nice to see Sean Manaea turn things around. He didn't even begin the year in the rotation, but now he's on a stretch of four straight outings with two or fewer runs allowed.
Manaea has a 2.16 ERA over 25 innings in those four starts, but his 4.95 xERA and 3.66 FIP suggest regression closer to his season-long 4.13 ERA. The regression could stem from Manaea's unsustainable 89% strand rate, compared to 72% in the season sample.
The Mets offense has played well without Juan Soto, ranking 8th in MLB in the 20 games since he went on the injured list. The main reason New York remains a solid offense is the long ball—they have 27 homers in that span (fourth in MLB).
Francisco Lindor looks the best he has all year, hitting five of those 27 homers, while Marcus Semien, Luis Torrens, and Luis Robert Jr. combine for 10 long balls.
I'm just not sure I buy this stretch being more than just a small sample. It's hard to gather and look at the prior data that includes Soto because of the value his plate presence provides. However, hitting home runs can mask issues, and the Mets have no shortage of power.
The biggest reason to fade the Mets? The bullpen. They dealt Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and Huascar Brazoban at the deadline, and struggling closer Devin Williams is on the IL. Now, the Mets have found value in Kodai Senga by moving him to the closer role, but everyone else is a question mark.
The bridge to Senga is very volatile. Daniel Duarte has developed into a decent setup guy, but his underlying stats indicate his 1.04 ERA is a mirage. Every other pitcher is a total question mark, even the hard-throwing, theatrical Jefry Yan.
After ridding themselves of the deadweight of Miles Mikolas and Zach Littell, the Nationals have to get creative. That's why Washington reliever Brad Lord is starting the game, likely for three or four innings, with left-hander Will Dion serving as the piggyback.
Lord and Dion covered 5 2/3 innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. The Reds only scored once against Lord and none against Dion. I like that pairing because it can handcuff opposing managers. If the Mets load up on lefties against Lord, they'll have to go to the bench or have the platoon disadvantage.
In different roles this year, Lord has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and 4.05 FIP. Very few pitchers are better than Lord at inducing ground balls, as his 56.7% groundball rate ranks in the 98th percentile.
Washington is in a similar spot to the Mets offensively. James Wood is out with an oblique injury, but the Nationals are seventh in MLB with a 113 wRC+ since he went on the IL.
Outside of CJ Abrams and Jacob Young, Washington doesn't have household names playing well. The likes of Harry Ford, Abimelic Ortiz, and Andrew Pinckney have come up from the minors and helped replace Wood and several former Nats who got dealt at the deadline.
I actually think the Nationals and Mets have very similar flaws. Neither has a strong bullpen; both have lineups that are performing well despite their best hitter sitting on the bench, but they could eventually regress.
The Mets enter as -143 favorites, but I struggle to see why. I like the Nationals' pitching situation better with Lord and Dion than Manaea, and the two lineups are pretty close to even. Give me the plus money here with the better team from top to bottom, even on the road.
Pick: Nationals ML (+100 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Marlins vs Reds Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
I think the Reds win this game on the back of a massive starting pitching advantage.
Brady Singer enters this contest in decent form, with five quality starts over the past few weeks.
It also helps that the Reds will be at home, where they typically play a little better.
Even if Singer struggles on Saturday, Ryan Gusto should get clobbered by Cincinnati’s lineup — he allows too much hard contact.
Pick: Reds ML (-120 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Brewers vs Dodgers Best Bet
I was perusing Zerillo’s BARTOLO (as one does) when I noticed he surprisingly shows an edge on the Dodgers as home ‘dogs against Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers.
This immediately caught my attention for a few reasons.
First, I like backing the Dodgers when they have one of their “lesser” arms on the mound, such as Justin Wrobleski. They still have the best lineup (projected 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching) and bullpen (projected 3.54 weighted FIP) in baseball, but we can bet them for cheap when someone other than Yoshinobu Yamamoto is starting.
That’s the case here, but Justin Wrobleski is not a bad arm. He’s an excellent control-and-command pitcher (113 Location+) with half-decent stuff (3.32 botERA). Although he’s coming off three of his worst outings of the season (15 earned runs allowed over the past 13 ⅔ innings), this could be a good bounce-back spot — he allowed 14 earned runs across a three-start stretch back in May and followed it up with 13 frames of one-run ball against the Phillies and Diamondbacks.
Of course, we have to fade baseball’s best pitcher to get the Dodgers as home ‘dogs. But Misiorowski has looked slightly more human of late, mostly because he’s been tagged by a bunch of homers (nine allowed across past eight starts) behind a slightly elevated hard-hit rate (40% hard-hit rate across past eight starts, compared to 34% across full season).
Let’s take a stab at the Dodgers behind BARTOLO.
Pick: Dodgers ML (+110 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Royals vs Angels Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
I’ve been dying on this Randy Dobnak regression hill for a month, and then he has his first start with more than one run (four) on a Sunday. I missed it.
That’s okay because we’re being given another chance.
He’s kept the ball on the ground 55.1% of the time, allowing just 4.2% Barrels/BBE, which is probably unsustainable with a 41.7 HardHit%.
But it’s the 3.2 K-BB% with a 2.00 ERA that I just can’t let slide.
Just two of his five barrels have left the yard. That can even out with one more home run, but his best non-FIP estimator is a 4.41 dERA, and they run all the way up to a 4.90 SIERA and 4.91 Bot ERA (91 Pitching+).
The projected LAA lineup is not a good one, averaging an 81 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ (.140 ISO) vs RHP and 68 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The projected Kansas City defense sits at a dead-neutral 0 FRV.
However, the Kansas City bullpen has the second-worst estimators in the league over the last month (5.62 FIP, 4.90 xFIP, 4.52 SIERA), and this time, BARTOLO agrees (27th with a 4.25 wFIP).
Opposing will be Reid Detmers, who always seems to sit with an ERA well above his underlying performance. This year it's exactly 4.00, but with estimators tightly ranging from a 3.45 FIP to a 3.59 xFIP (not including a 3.73 Bot ERA and 110 Pitching+), it’s pretty clear there’s a half run missing somewhere.
You might say that it’s the same story with Detmers every year. Maybe that’s just who he is. However, the last two years, it was a .350 BABIP. This year, it’s a 69.7 LOB%. It’s not the same.
The LAA lineup is bad, but the Royals are just as bad, averaging a 91 wRC+ on the road, 98 wRC+ (.146 ISO) vs LHP and 81 wRC+ L30 days.
The Angels had some turnover at the deadline, and it hasn’t helped the offense, but the defense is much improved. The lineup they’re putting on the field against RHP now sits at 6 FRV on defense.
The Angels did empty the bullpen at the deadline too, and BARTOLO now ranks them 21st (4.10 wFIP), which is six spots better than the Royals. However, it’s also been almost two weeks, and the Angels still have the second-best bullpen estimators in the league over the last month (3.20 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA). Heck, they have the fourth-best K-BB (18.8%) over the past two weeks.
Pick: Angels ML (-160 or Better)
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