MLB Odds & Picks for Guardians vs. Dodgers: Will Los Angeles Cruise at Home?
Photo by David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images
- After losing the series opener, the Dodgers look to get revenge on the Guardians on Saturday.
- Julio Urias takes the hill at Dodger Stadium for L.A. while Cal Quantrill opposes him for Cleveland.
- Here's how we're betting this affair.
Guardians vs. Dodgers Odds
| Guardians Odds | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | -240 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
In a pitcher's duel that went into extras, the Cleveland Guardians outlasted the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series opener Friday night.
The Guardians have won 14 of their last 17 and look to keep the ball rolling behind Cal Quantrill. The Dodgers, meanwhile, turn to southpaw Julio Urias.
Can Los Angeles even the series at one apiece, or will the red-hot Guardians continue to roll on Saturday?
Regressing Coming for Guardians' Quantrill?
Despite his expected indicators signifying negative regression, Quantrill has continued to pitch well in 2022.
The 27-year-old has given up more than three earned runs just once in an outing and enters Saturday's contest with a 3.38 ERA.
Meanwhile, his xERA sits nearly a run higher at 4.24, and his xFIP is all the way up at 4.74. Quantrill's strikeout rate has dropped significantly this season — he's in the bottom 10% of all pitchers — and has seen his walk rate increase.
While he does limit hard contact and is above-average in barrel rate, opponents have a .270 xBA and .452 xSLG against the right-hander. Both would be career lows if the season ended today.
While Quantrill has been able to escape plenty of jams and turn in solid outings all season, I have a hard time believing his ERA will sit in the mid 3s for much longer.
Tack on the fact that his velocity is down — his sinker sits nearly 1.5 miles per hour less in 2022 — and Quantrill is a fade candidate over the next few weeks.
Will Dodgers & Urias Limit Long Ball?
Urias has really settled in as a top-of-the-line arm in the Dodgers' rotation.
The left-hander has a 2.80 ERA and ranks in the top-five percent of MLB in Hard-Hit Rate. He rarely has control issues and opponents have just a .232 xBA.
Like Quantrill, Urias' velocity has dipped a bit from 2021. His fastball is down 1.7 miles per hour, though, he's been much more effective with the pitch — .211 BA vs .276.
His xERA is just over a half-run higher at 3.36, though, I wouldn't expect any sudden negative regression with his ability to induce soft contact often.
Urias' glaring issue? When he does give up hard hits, it's usually barreled. Over his last three starts, he's given up five home runs. That's been the only source of offense for the opposition.
Offensively, the Dodgers have slumped in the month of June, ranking 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA. But despite their struggles, they remain a top-five offense against right-handed pitching and are first in walk rate.
It's important to note that Mookie Betts was scratched from Friday night's lineup with a rib contusion, and his status remains unclear for tonight's game.
Guardians-Dodgers Pick
The Dodgers are clear favorites in Saturday night's matchup, and for good reason.
While their offensive woes have led to a rollercoaster June — that includes being swept by the Pirates — the Dodgers should be able to get to Quantrill early. He's due for negative regression and has been hit hard — the damage has just been controlled.
Quantrill also struggles in night games (4.24 ERA) and is slightly worse on the road (3.64 ERA) compared to at Progressive Field.
He now draws a tough matchup against Urias, who has long been one of the best left-handers in baseball. While Urias struggles with the long ball, I'm not sure the Guardians are the team to make him pay.
Cleveland ranks 29th in isolated power and 27th in wRC+ against southpaws, and its only real constant threat is Jose Ramirez.
There isn't much value backing the Dodgers straight up on the moneyline because of their expensive price in the mid 200s, but I do think it's worth a shot backing them on the runline.
The offense should produce against Quantrill and I can't expect the Guardians to put up much of a fight against Urias. Back L.A. to take home a big win and bounce back from last night's loss at Dodger Stadium.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-105 to -115)
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