Guardians vs Yankees Playoff Picks, Odds for ALDS Game 5
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Nestor Cortes and Anthony Rizzo
- The Guardians and Yankees will meet in Game 5 of the ALDS on Tuesday afternoon.
- After rain wiped out Monday's affair, New York will start Nestor Cortes against Cleveland's Aaron Civale.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5 Odds
|4:07 p.m. ET
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
The series that won't end will last one more day.
After a lengthy rain delay ended in an eventual postponement, the Cleveland Guardians and New YorkYankees will meet Tuesday afternoon in Game 5, with the winner advancing to the ALCS to face the Houston Astros.
Monday's rainout changes things quite a bit for both teams. Instead of Jameson Taillon against Aaron Civale, we'll have Nestor Cortes against … well, presumably still Civale, although nothing has been officially announced as of this writing.
The league and teams are conferencing at 6pm to reassess the weather situation for tonight.
Shane Bieber is not available tonight. That’s a Terry Francona/Carl Willis executive decision.
Aaron Civale would still start if the game is pushed to tomorrow.
— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) October 17, 2022
Moving the game by one day does quite a bit in terms of the pitching plans, and thus potentially changes how we should bet this game. Let's dig into it and see if we can find value in ALDS Game 5 between the Guardians and Yankees.
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Yankees' Bullpen More Rested Now
It's hard to argue that this doesn't help the Yankees even more than it helps the Guardians. For one, New York now goes with its co-ace this season in Cortes — albeit on short rest — instead of the inconsistent Taillon.
More important, though, is that the Yankees' bullpen gets a much-needed extra day of rest. Had the game been played as normally scheduled on Monday, New York would've been looking at potentially using Wandy Peralta for the fourth-straight day, and Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino and Clarke Schmidt each appeared on three of the last four days.
The Guardians' bullpen as currently assembled is the biggest edge Cleveland has had over the Yankees for the duration of the series. It's still the Guardians' strongest edge, just not as stark on Tuesday as it would've been on Monday.
What the Yankees can get out of Cortes before it comes to that is to be determined. He battled command issues in Game 2 on Friday, and being on short rest means anything goes. There's also a good chance the Yankees still use Taillon in relief for the middle innings behind Cortes before turning things over to the slightly-more-rested top bullpen arms.
Yankees Hope To Feast Against Civale
On the surface, things don't appear much different for the Guardians. As of this writing, we're assuming Civale still gets the start. Terry Francona said he would not use Shane Bieber in what would've amounted to a bullpen day-outing on Monday, but with an extra day, there's an off chance he starts or at least is available in relief.
Assuming for the purposes of this handicap that the Guardians go with Civale and a solidly rested bullpen behind him, things don't change much. Civale was much more effective this season than his 4.92 ERA suggests, but he struggles with the long ball, which could be a problem at homer-happy Yankee Stadium.
I would expect Francona to give Civale the hook before things get out of control, however. The absolute best case scenario for Cleveland would be that he's a five-and-dive guy on Tuesday, but even if he only goes through the order once in 3-4 innings, the bullpen is rested and ready to go.
Cleveland's best relievers have all had now three full days off since they last threw and all should be able to for for one or more innings. Maybe Francona uses Bieber to bridge the gap. Maybe he uses him toward the end of the game in a big spot. Maybe he doesn't use him at all. Regardless, Cleveland's deep and talented bullpen doing what it's done all season and all postseason long is the best-case scenario for Tuesday.
Monday's game had a total of 7.5 when it was presumed Taillon vs. Civale and I was on the under there given Cleveland's bullpen and its offense against Taillon.
The extra day off makes New York's pitching stronger even if they get a less-effective version of Cortes on short rest. I still like the under here at 7, but while the Yankees getting the extra day of rest helps, I think Cortes on short rest plus Cleveland's bullpen edge makes the Guardians a worthy underdog bet for the full game.
I'll be betting under 7 at -120 or better and the Guardians' full-game moneyline at +135 or better. I like both of those bets whether it's Civale or a surprising Bieber start for Cleveland.
Pick: Under 7 (-120 or better) | Guardians moneyline (+135 or better)