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Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Preview, Prediction: Value on Flexen and Seattle (Saturday, August 7)

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Preview, Prediction: Value on Flexen and Seattle (Saturday, August 7) article feature image

Julio Aguilar / Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Flexen.

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds

Mariners Odds +150
Yankees Odds -180
Over/Under 10
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Friday at 4:00 p.m. ET and via DraftKings.

Andrew Heaney looks to straighten out his rough start with the New York Yankees since being traded away from the Los Angeles Angels last week. He competes against Chris Flexen, who has been a surprising go-to option in the Seattle Mariners rotation.

The Yankees have a new-and-improved lineup, but do the new faces of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo help while facing the righty from Seattle? The home field advantage and short porch for the Yankees could come into play, but do the hometown Yankees have enough value?

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Seattle Mariners

The Mariners reside only 3.5 games out of the second wild card despite their appalling -51 run differential. Chris Flexen does not tout any major strengths outside of just keeping the ball in the strike zone, but he does a decent job at missing barrels. He will not blow any batters away with his 15.9% strikeout rate, but if he gets enough Yankees to miss the barrel, he should be in great shape.

The Mariners have lost their last two, and one of the main contributors to their awful run differential for a competitive team has been their batting, particularly when facing lefties. They rank 24th in wRC+ at 92 against southpaws this year.

Since July 1, however, about five of their hitters, including newly acquired Abraham Toro, have eclipsed the elusive 100 wRC+ mark. Mitch Haniger has been on a torrid streak, passing up 200 with a 10.9% walk rate and 1.232 OPS. On paper, the Seattle lineup should be able to produce a bit more off of Heaney than they had earlier in the season.

Diego Castillo and Paul Sewald lead the way for a strong Seattle bullpen, but losing Kendall Graveman via trade negatively affects this team going forward. That said, they should be able to manage with plenty of solid relief options, as long as Flexen can produce five or six innings of work.

New York Yankees

Conversely, the Yankees have a great bullpen. With most of their rotation out, their relievers are critical. If Heaney struggles again early, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green, and company can handle the workload that most bullpens could not.

However, the crux of the Yankees this week has been COVID-19. Gary Sánchez, Gerrit Cole, and Jordan Montgomery are all on the COVID-19 list, as of Friday. The injury woes do not stop there. Luke Voit, Miguel Andújar, Clint Frazier, and Gio Urshela are also all on the Injured List.

Plenty of weight rests on the big boppers recently acquired by the Bronx Bombers: Rizzo and Gallo. Shockingly, Rizzo only has a .753 OPS off of right-handers this season. Gallo’s is .707. This ultimately leads to Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Both have posted sub-100 wRC+ since July 1. Considering this, the Yankees have far too many issues in the lineup to be able to match up with a reasonably strong starter in Flexen.

Mariners-Yankees Pick

The Seattle Mariners do not necessarily hit well, but have done enough damage to keep them within striking distance of a Wild Card berth since July 1. The Yankees have done the opposite and adding Rizzo and Gallo has not helped against righties.

With plenty of power bats sidelined with injury or COVID-19, the Yankees need to find a power source somewhere and lately, their lineup has not been encouraging.

Flexen gets the advantage between the two starters and Seattle should be able to string together enough strong plate appearances off of Andrew Heaney.

Take the Mariners with their strong value at +150 and play to +125. They have the clear advantage.

Pick: Seattle Mariners +150

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