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Marlins vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Miami in First 5 Innings (Wednesday, August 10)

Marlins vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Miami in First 5 Innings (Wednesday, August 10) article feature image
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Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara.

  • The Phillies take on the Marlins on Wednesday in this battle of NL East franchises.
  • Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for Miami, which is a slight underdog against Philadelphia.
  • Charlie DiSturco breaks down the meeting below and details why he's backing a prop wager ahead of this contest.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Marlins Odds +105
Phillies Odds -125
Over/Under 7 (-120/+100)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The red-hot Philadelphia Phillies look to keep the ball rolling Wednesday when they take on the Miami Marlins in the second of a three-game series. The Phillies have won 11 of their last 12 and now face their greatest test: taking on standout pitcher Sandy Alcantara.

It’s an NL East bout with Noah Syndergaard on the mound for Philadelphia, which still feels weird to say. His debut with the team ended after five innings of four-run ball during a rain-shortened game.

So, can Syndergaard and the Phillies continue to roll against the lowly Marlins or will Alcantara put an end to the hot streak? Let’s take a look to see where we can find some betting value.

Miami Marlins

It’s Sandy Alcantara Day!

The right-hander has soared as the ace of the Marlins in 2022, supplanting himself in Cy Young conversations. He’s got a 1.88 ERA and opponents have a .207 xBA against the right-hander.

Alcantara’s xERA is nearly a run higher at 2.79, and I’d doubt he sustains a sub-2 ERA in the final months, but he’s one of the best arms in baseball nonetheless. Opponents have just a .207 xBA and a barrel rate of 5.3%. Alcantara doesn’t walk many batters (2.27 BB/9), nor does he give up many home runs (0.45 HR/9) as well.

Alcantara enters fresh off a complete game shutout of Cincinnati. He has faced the Phillies three times this season, posting a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings.

The reason Alcantara remains in plus money despite his dominance is the Miami offense. Over the last 14 days, they rank 27th in isolated power, 28th in wRC+ and 29th in wOBA.

Brian Anderson, Jon Berti, Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia remain on the injured list for the Marlins.

Philadelphia Phillies

Syndergaard is nowhere near the same pitcher he was pre-Tommy John surgery.

Making his Phillies debut last week, Syndergaard threw five innings of four-run ball. He gave up 11 hits and struck out just two in the win. The right-hander has sputtered in 2022, seeing his strikeout rate drop to sub-20 percent and his walk rate rise to a career-worst. He’s not the lights out pitcher he used to be, as opponents have a .256 xBA and .402 xSLG.

Syndergaard’s barrel rate has also risen to 7.6% and expected indicators sit just above his 4.02 ERA.  Though he’s not being burned by the long ball, Syndergaard is way more susceptible to allowing base runners.

It’s also important to note that Syndergaard is the worst pitcher when it comes to stolen bases allowed, and it’s not close. Prior to his trade to Philly, Syndergaard allowed 25 stolen bases in 14 games. The next worst? Nick Pivetta, who has 14.

In his Philadelphia debut, a game that was cut short after five innings, the Nationals swiped two bases off Syndergaard. Opponents consistently can move 90 feet and put themselves in scoring position against the 6-foot-6 right-hander.

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Marlins-Phillies Pick

It’s never fun backing the Miami Marlins in any capacity, but Syndergaard is a pitcher I’ve long faded this season. And now, I’m getting the much-better Alcantara as an underdog? Count me in.

Even against the Marlins, I think Syndergaard will struggle. They’re extremely aggressive and have the most stolen bases per game, which we’ve seen Syndergaard struggling mightily with in 2022.

While I don’t fully trust the Marlins bullpen, I do think there’s a significant enough edge in the first five innings to back Alcantara over Syndergaard.

Alcantara continues to be disrespected in the market despite a sub-2 ERA. Even with the Phillies swinging a hot bat, I think their streak comes to an end against one of MLB’s best.

Take the discount for Alcantara pitching for Miami and back the Marlins on the first five moneyline in this NL East showdown.

Pick: Marlins F5 ML (+100 | Down to -110)

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