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Wednesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mets vs. Braves: How to Bet NL East Rubber Match (July 13)

Wednesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mets vs. Braves: How to Bet NL East Rubber Match (July 13) article feature image
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Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Bassitt (Mets)

  • The Mets and Braves square off in a critical rubber match between two teams at the top of the NL East.
  • The Mets hold a 1.5-game lead in the division, but the Braves have made up significant ground over the last month or so.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the angle he's taking in this duel.

Mets vs. Braves Odds

Mets Odds +130
Braves Odds 150
Over/Under 8.5
Time 12:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Atlanta punched back on Tuesday in a big way, as it smashed two late-inning homers to propel itself to victory and even up this crucial series. It sets up a pivotal rubber match, as the Mets hold a 1.5-game lead in the NL East over the Braves entering this series finale.

Chris Bassitt will get the ball for the Mets, and he’s been everything they could’ve asked for when they traded for him this past offseason. He’ll enter looking for his seventh victory of the year while holding a 3.94 ERA.

Bassitt will be opposed by Charlie Morton. The 38-year-old right-hander got off to a rough start, but hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his last five starts.

We’ve seen this depleted Mets lineup struggle to produce consistently thus far in the series, but can Morton stay dialed in with the pressure on?

Let’s take a closer look at these two starters to find out.

Expect Morton to Cruise Early On 

Morton has come back to life over his last five starts. He’s allowed six runs and struck out 33 batters during this recent stretch, and the difference-maker for him has been his command.

Prior to his start on June 17, Morton had not had a start where he did not walk a batter, but since then, he’s had three. His improved command has allowed him to get ahead of hitters and put them away more often. That’s why he’s gone much deeper into ball games and racked up strikeouts along the way.

On top of Morton clicking on all cylinders, he’s had tremendous history against the Mets. He’s amassed 116 at-bats against the current Mets lineup and has dominated them. The Mets are hitting just .172 with a .229 wOBA and a 24.8 strikeout percentage.

This Mets’ lineup is already diminished with James McCann and Starling Marte injured, as well as Jeff McNeil being on paternity leave. The outlook for them is relatively bleak.


Look for Bassitt to Keep Braves Off-Balance

The Braves are a team that has seemingly found the perfect balance between hitting home runs and striking out. They enter this matchup with the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors, but also have the second-most home runs.

Bassitt seems to be the perfect match for them. His home run per nine rate is 1.22 (the second-highest in his career), but his strikeouts per nine are 9.19 (the highest mark he’s ever had). Given that the strikeouts are more likely to happen than the homers, Bassitt has the edge.

We’ve already seen him perform well against this Braves lineup. Back in May, Bassitt threw seven quality innings, as he allowed only three runs on six hits and struck out eight batters.

Just like his counterpart, Bassitt has been on a hot streak of his own. Since getting tormented by San Diego, he’s thrown four consecutive quality starts. In that span, he’s allowed eight runs and struck out 24 batters over 27.1 innings pitched.

Given his tendencies, he should roll again and bolster our angle for this game.

Mets-Braves Pick

This series is hypercritical, as the Mets desperately need to fend off the Braves, who have closed the gap significantly over the last month in the NL East. However, the Mets are hampered without some of their best bats, and they lack the pop to steal games like the Braves did on Tuesday.

On the other side, Atlanta hasn’t put together many rallies. Max Scherzer carved the Braves up for seven innings in game one, and David Peterson was excellent before allowing a two-run homer at the end of his outing.

Now they’ll face the Mets’ third ace in Bassitt, who should give them fits.

I’m taking the first five under, as this rubber match will be another tight, low-scoring contest.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-110)

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