MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Rangers vs Mets, Angels vs Phillies, More (Monday, August 28)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Vogelbach and DJ Stewart.
A new week is upon us in Major League Baseball and there's a surprisingly sturdy slate on this Monday, normally reserved as a getaway day.
With 14 games on the slate, our analysts have found a particular amount of value on three of them: Angels vs. Phillies, White Sox vs. Orioles and Rangers vs. Mets.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, August 28.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Angels vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
These two clubs enter this series in opposite form, with Los Angeles losing five of its past seven games and Philadelphia winning five of its past six.
Those trends are likely to continue with right-hander Taijuan Walker slated to take the mound for the Phillies.
While Walker endured some turbulence at the beginning of 2023, he has been a reliable arm on the mound throughout the second half of the campaign. Over his past 13 starts, the right-hander is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
This strong stretch of pitching is likely to continue against the Angels.
It's been yet another disappointing campaign for Los Angeles, which is going to miss the playoffs despite rostering two of the best players in baseball. The hitting hasn't been terrible, but it hasn't been great, either, as the Angels rank near the middle of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game and batting average.
Philadelphia paces them in all of those categories, as well as SLG and OPS. Not only do the Phillies possess the stronger lineup, but they will also boast the pitching advantage, both in terms of the starter and the bullpen.
Right-hander Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Los Angeles and should be a good fade candidate. Through 26 starts, he is 7-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Better form, betting pitching, better hitting and playing on their home diamond? Lay the juice on the Phillies.
Pick: Phillies ML (-134)
White Sox vs. Orioles
Michael Kopech has been terrible this season and his expected metrics are even worse. He has a 4.95 ERA, but his xERA is up at 5.73 and his xFIP is 5.63. His problem is very clear: he walks too many guys. His BB/9 rate is a historically bad 6.00 and he’s pitched 124 innings, so it’s not like this is happening over a small sample size.
Then when he is getting hit, he’s getting crushed. He has a 13.5% barrel rate allowed, .363 xwOBA allowed, and a 42.7% hard-hit rate allowed. It’s because he’s a heavy fastball pitcher, utilizing that pitch a little over 62% of the time. It’s a good fastball with a Stuff+ rating of 117, but he has no control over it as the Location+ is just 92.
The Orioles are a top-10 offense in terms of wOBA against right-handed pitching and above average against fastballs, so they should be able to get to Kopech. The White Sox bullpen since the trade deadline has also been terrible, with the eighth-worst xFIP and fifth-worst Pitching+.
Grayson Rodriguez is obviously a very talented young pitcher who has great stuff. However, he’s had problems with his control this season. His BB/9 rate is at 3.5, his HR/9 rate is at 1.55. He’s been better in his last five or so starts, but for the month of August his xFIP is still at 4.08.
The White Sox have been hitting the ball better over the past two weeks with a wRC+ of 104.
I have 10.1 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 9 runs at -105.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
Rangers vs. Mets
By Kevin Rogers
The Rangers blew a 5-0 lead in Sunday’s 7-6 loss at Minnesota to drop to 1-9 over the last 10 games. Texas heads to the Big Apple tonight to face the Mets, who avoided a sweep with a win over the Angels yesterday.
Tylor Megill owns an ERA of 5.54 this season, but the Mets’ right-hander has been a solid F5 play at home. New York has compiled a 7-2 record at Citi Field in the first five innings in Megill’s nine home starts, compared to a 1-9 mark on the road.
Jon Gray counters for Texas, and the right-hander is 0-2-2 in his past four road starts in the first five innings. In three of those games, the Rangers have been shut out halfway through, as the offense has gone dormant with Gray on the mound.
It’s also been feast or famine for Texas recently in the first five innings. The Rangers are 8-0 in the last 20 games when scoring four runs or more in the F5. However, Texas has posted a putrid 0-8-4 mark in this span when plating three runs or fewer in the F5.
The Mets have had plenty of struggles this season but have stepped up at home with Megill on the mound. After blowing another game on Sunday, it’s hard to back the Rangers as a favorite here with their free fall.
Let’s back the Mets in the first five innings at +120 at FanDuel. Play this to +115.