MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Rangers vs Blue Jays, Angels vs Mariners, More (Monday, September 11)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez
We're about three weeks away from locking in the 2023 MLB postseason field, and with races heating up, every game brings with it that much more meaning.
There are 15 games on this Monday slate, including a doubleheader between the Braves and Phillies that gets us started this afternoon. After that, there are 14 more games under the lights, and our MLB analysts have found a particular amount of value in four of them: Cardinals vs, Orioles, Rangers vs. Blue Jays, Diamondbacks vs. Mets and Angels vs. Mariners.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, September 11th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Cardinals vs. Orioles
By Tony Sartori
You're going to need to lay a bit of juice on the Orioles in this spot, but I think it's worth the squeeze given the matchup.
Right-hander Dakota Hudson takes the mound for St. Louis and should be a good fade candidate. Through 14 appearances this season, the right-hander owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as Hudson ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.
Right-hander Dean Kremer takes the mound for Baltimore. He's not very good either, but he beats out Hudson in nearly every surface-level stat and analytic across the board.
Furthermore, Kremer enters this contest in tremendous form. Over his past eight starts, Kremer is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Not only do the Orioles possess the starting pitching advantage, but the hitting advantage is even stronger as they rank higher than the Cardinals in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA and SLG.
Better pitcher, better starting lineup, better form and playing on their home diamond, so I don't mind laying the juice. I would bet the Orioles to -175.
Pick: Orioles ML (-165)
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
By Kevin Rogers
The Rangers have slumped to a 6-14 record in the last 20 games overall and sit a half-game outside of the final playoff spot in the American League wild-card race.
Texas captured the final two games of its weekend series against Oakland to save some face as the Rangers head north of the border to take on the Blue Jays.
Toronto pulled away from Kansas City on Sunday to grab a three-game sweep of the Royals and move into the second wild-card position in the AL.
The Jays have struggled in the home series openers in the first five innings recently by posting a 4-11-2 mark in their last 17 opportunities.
Dane Dunning began the season at 8-1-2 in the first five innings for Texas, but the righty has compiled a 1-9 record in his last 10 starts in the first five. It hasn’t helped that the Rangers have scored one run or fewer seven times in those nine losses.
Texas faces Toronto right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been fantastic of late by allowing one run in his past two starts, while tossing eight innings in each win.
Bassitt couldn’t escape the fourth inning when he faced the Rangers in Arlington back in mid-June even though the Jays built a 6-0 lead. Texas rallied for an 11-7 win as Bassitt was charged with five runs.
Let’s back Texas in the first five innings and play it to +120.
Pick: Rangers F5 ML (+120)
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
By D.J. James
Zach Davies is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. He owns a fifth percentile pitching run value overall with an ERA of 6.81 against a 5.16 xERA. His average exit velocity allowed is 89.5 mph with a hard hit rate of 41.7%. His strikeout rate is 18.3% against a 10.2% walk rate. Neither of these are overwhelming and have led to his 6.00 ERA over nine innings this month.
The Mets have fared well off of right-handers lately. In the last two weeks, they have a 119 wRC+ and .808 OPS. They have a collective 22.6% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, but since Davies strikes out a smaller number and walks a larger number of hitters, the New York lineup will get the benefit of the doubt.
New York has nine active hitters eclipsing a .330 xwOBA, seven of which have a 90+ mph average exit velocity in the last two weeks off of righties.
The Mets should be able to drive Davies out of the game early.
The Diamondbacks have a 4.11 xFIP in relief with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. However, their 79.9% LOB percentage, while striking out that few hitters, is concerning. The Mets should be able to manufacture some runs off of the D'backs bullpen.
With that being the case, the Mets should hit their team total over. Davies is awful and the Arizona bullpen has a little regression headed their way. Take it to 5 and -125.
Pick: Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (-109)
Angels vs. Mariners
Reid Detmers is a strikeout-or-nothing pitcher. He has a 10.1 K/9 rate, but his BB/9 rate is up at 3.72, his average exit velocity allowed and hard hit rate allowed are below the 30th percentile.
All of that has translated to an xERA of 4.60 and he has not pitched well down the stretch. Since the beginning of August his xFIP is above 5.5 and he’s given up 22 runs in six starts with one of those starts coming against the Mariners, where he allowed seven earned runs.
Here is the problem for Detmers: His slider is his only above-average pitch and his has a great Stuff+ rating of 124, but his fastball is just 91 and his curveball is just 92. The Mariners are an above-average lineup against left-handed pitching with a 108 wRC+ and are the second-best lineup in baseball against left-handed fastballs: .397 xwOBA and +21.8 run value.
Detmers is going to be in trouble with his below-average fastball that he throws 42% of the time.
Logan Gilbert has been outstanding this season, putting up a 3.71 xERA, 3.64 xFIP with an incredibly low 1.62 BB/9 rate. Gilbert has a great slider and splitter that have been fantastic out pitches for him, but his fastball has been below average. He throws it over 40% of the time, it only has a Stuff+ rating of 89 and opposing hitters have a .354 xwOBA against it.
Shohei Ohtani has been out for a while, but has been taking swings in warmups the past few days, so it's at least possible he will be in the lineup. Either way, the Angels have been a top-10 team by wOBA against right-handed pitching and have been above average against right-handed fastball.
I have 8.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 7.5 runs at -110.