Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, August 15.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins F5 -110, 0.55u | Bet to -130
- Marlins -104, 0.52u | Bet to -120
- Marlins/Reds Under 9.5 (-120), 1.2u | Bet to 9
- Brewers -140, 1u | Bet to -150
- Brewers/Dodgers Under 7.5 (-105), 0.53u | Bet through 7.5
- Angels -154, 0.77u | Bet to -160
Marlins @ Reds Picks
Over his last seven starts plus three multi-inning relief appearances, since June 21st, Ryan Gusto has a perfectly respectable 3.82 ERA backed by a 3.54 xERA, 3.62 FIP and 3.99 xFIP.
He’s struck out 22% of the batters he’s faced during this period, walking just 6%, while allowing 5.7% Barrels/BBE with a 41.5 HardHit%.
That kind of performance should keep him in the Miami rotation for the rest of the season.
While he does experience a park downgrade on Saturday evening with GAB increasing run scoring by 4% with scheduled umpire Sean Barber adding another 1%, he also gets to face one of the worst offenses in the league.
BARTOLO’s projected Cincinnati lineup averages just a 93 wRC+ at home, 76 (.153 ISO) against RHP and 83 over the last 30 days. Keep in mind that this is also one of the most power friendly parks in the league too when looking at that ISO.
J.J. Bleday’s 117 wRC+ (through Thursday) is the highest mark in that lineup against RHP, while none of the five through nine batters reach 90, including Ke’Bryan Hayes at 1 (it was 0 when I wrote it up for Thursday).
Not only that, but the majority of the damage against Gusto this season has been done by LHBs (.337 wOBA, .350 xwOBA). The Reds are projected to have Bleday, Elly De La Cruz (104 wRC+ vs RHP) and Hector Rodriguez, who has a -9 wRC+ through 26 major league plate appearances.
RHBs have .292 wOBA and .274 xwOBA against Gusto this year. That’s down to a .272 wOBA with a 25.4 K-BB% since June 21st.
Brady Singer, on the other hand, is just all he’s ever been. A 4.66 ERA with estimators ranging from a 4.32 xFIP to a 5.02 xERA. In fact, his 11.3 K-BB% is a new career low, as is his 88 Pitching+.
The Miami projected lineup averages just a 97 wRC+ one the road and 83 over the last 30 days, but has been perfectly league average (100 wRC+, .163 ISO) against RHP.
The projected Miami defense has a small 8 FRV (Fielding Run Value) advantage over Cincinnati’s projected defense with both combining for 2 FRV.
The Marlins also have an 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge.
Surprisingly, the Reds do have the 8th best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days (3.69 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA), compared to the Marlins just 16th (4.73 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA).
However, that half run gap is reversed by BARTOLO, which ranks Miami the 11th best bullpen (3.84 wFIP) and Cincinnati 29th (4.37 wFIP)
That is, rechecks math, everything in Miami’s favor except for the bullpen conflict, which comes out to a wash.
There are a number of things we can do here and I’m going to do three of them.
The first and second are splitting a unit between F5 (-110) and full game (100) on the Marlins.
The second is a full unit on the under. We’ve already discussed the 5% run environment boost (park/umpire) with some conflict between weather sources suggesting it won’t have that much of an impact either way. I’m having a lot of trouble getting to 9 or 9.5.
Pitching (starting and bullpens) is marginal with defenses combining to be average, but the Cincinnati offense really drags this down and the park doesn't boost them up that much.
Picks: Marlins F5 -110, 0.55u | Bet to -130, Marlins -104, 0.52u | Bet to -120, Under 9.5 (-120), 1.2u | Bet to 9
Brewers @ Dodgers Picks
Have the Dodgers been a home underdog all year? I mean a real one, like they are here. Not by just a few cents.
So the Brewers did limit Jacob Misiorowski to just 65 pitches and four innings in his first start back from the break, but he’s been up to 83, 83 and 94 in three starts since and this is somewhat of an important series for the Brewers, if seeding concerns them.
Also when you consider that both teams have been somewhat struggling this month.
Anyway, in six starts since the beginning of July, the Miz has struck out at least nine in every start where he’s thrown more than 65 pitches.
With a 1.76 ERA that’s within half a run of all non-pitch modeling estimators and within one-third of a run if you remove the 2.16 FIP, he can almost cruise to the Cy Young. And he still has the best Bot ERA (2.34) and Pitching+ (130) on the board by a great margin. He’s also allowed 13 home runs on just nine barrels (3.5%) all season.
His true talent right now might legitimately be around two. We haven't seen a season this dominant since peak deGrom and Pedro before him.
We know what the Dodger lineup looks like. Their standard against RHP averages a 117 wRC+ with a .175 ISO, but they also average just a 100 wRC+ over the last month with just Ohtani (124), Freeman (121) and Muncy (112) running above average over the last 30 days.
Still, I’m not going to try to convince you this is not one of the best offenses, if not the best, in the league. This is as tough a spot as Misiorowski is going to see this year.
However, he also has a solid defense (8 FRV) and bullpen (3.21 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.38 SIERA last 30 days) behind him. BARTOLO ranks the Milwaukee bullpen 12th (3.84 wFIP).
Then there’s Justin Wrobleski, who’s been an enigma. He averaged 93.6 mph with a 13.3 K% and 2.49 ERA, but estimators over four through his first seven starts.
There were two starts in the 94 range in between, but then over his next six starts he was up to 95.3 mph, a 22.1 K% and 2.39 ERA with an xERA above four, but 3.42 xFIP.
Then he dropped back down to 94.5 mph with a 28 K% for two starts.
He’s been back up above 95 mph in his last two starts with a 2.0 K-BB%.
Oh, and he’s also allowed nine home runs on as many barrels over his last three starts.
I can’t tell you what to expect from him in any given start, but overall, his 3.44 ERA is well below indicators ranging from a 4.13 FIP to a 4.67 xERA with one exception. His actual results do align with his pitch modeling (3.33 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+).
I have him around four and a quarter or four-fifths of a run higher than his actual ERA.
What he does have in his favor is that the Brewers struggle against LHP. Saturday’s projected lineup averages an 87 wRC+ and .114 ISO against southpaws with the same 100 wRC+ as the Dodger projected lineup over the last month.
The Dodger projected defense is also better than the Milwaukee projected one by 11 FRV.
However, the Dodger bullpen has the 24th best estimators over the last month (4.69 FIP, 4.70 xFIP, 4.11 SIERA), averaging exactly four and a half.
That’s more than a full run worse than Milwaukee’s bullpen over the last month, but BARTOLO rates the Dodger pen best in the league (3.47 wFIP). Maybe by the time the post-season rolls around they will be, but I have trouble taking that at face value when the media is asking if Edwin Diaz is going to continue to close and Dave Roberts asks what other options he has.
The bottom line is I have Misiorowski two runs ahead of Wrobleski. I think BARTOLO’s 2.59 wFIP is a bit conservative. The Dodger offensive edge (15 to 20 points wRC+) and defensive edge (11 FRV) can’t get that back, especially when you consider how volatile that bullpen is right now.
However, I do think the ineptitude of the Milwaukee offense against LHP keeps this close and low scoring.
Picks: Brewers -140, 1u | Bet to -150, Under 7.5 (-105), 0.53u | Bet through 7.5
Royals @ Angels Picks
I’ve been dying on this Randy Dobnak regression hill for a month and then he has his first start with more than one run (four) on a Sunday. I missed it.
That’s okay because we’re being given another chance.
He’s kept the ball on the ground 55.1% of the time, allowing just 4.2% Barrels/BBE, which is probably unsustainable with a 41.7 HardHit%.
But it’s the 3.2 K-BB% with a 2.00 ERA that I just can’t let slide.
Just two of his five barrels have left the yard. That can even out with one more home run, but his best non-FIP estimator is a 4.41 dERA and they run all the way up to a 4.90 SIERA and 4.91 Bot ERA (91 Pitching+).
The projected LAA lineup is not a good one, averaging an 81 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ (.140 ISO) vs RHP and 68 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The projected Kansas City defense sits at a dead neutral 0 FRV.
However, the Kansas City bullpen has the second worst estimators in the league over the last month (5.62 FIP, 4.90 xFIP, 4.52 SIERA) and this time, BARTOLO agrees (27th with a 4.25 wFIP).
Opposing will be Reid Detmers, who always seems to sit with an ERA well above his underyling performance. This year it's exactly 4.00, but with estimators tightly ranging from a 3.45 FIP to a 3.59 xFIP (not including a 3.73 Bot ERA and 110 Pitching+), it’s pretty clear there’s a half run missing somewhere.
You might say that it’s the same story with Detmers every year. Maybe that’s just who he is. However, the last two years, it was a .350 BABIP. This year, it’s a 69.7 LOB%. It’s not the same.
The LAA lineup is bad, but the Royals are just as bad, averaging a 91 wRC+ on the road, 98 wRC+ (.146 ISO) vs LHP and 81 wRC+ L30 days.
The Angels had some turnover at the deadline and it hasn’t helped the offense, but the defense is much improved. The lineup they’re putting on the field against RHP now sits at 6 FRV on defense.
The Angels did empty the bullpen at the deadline too and BARTOLO now ranks them 21st (4.10 wFIP), which is six spots better than the Royals. However, it’s also been almost two weeks and the Angels still have the second best bullpen estimators in the league over the last month (3.20 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA). Heck, they have the fourth best K-BB (18.8%) over the last two weeks too!
This line has risen from -150 even since I started writing this.
Picks: Angels -154, 0.77u | Bet to -160
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 15
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins F5 -110, 0.55u | Bet to -130
- Marlins -104, 0.52u | Bet to -120
- Marlins/Reds Under 9.5 (-120), 1.2u | Bet to 9
- Brewers -140, 1u | Bet to -150
- Brewers/Dodgers Under 7.5 (-105), 0.53u | Bet through 7.5
- Angels -154, 0.77u | Bet to -160
