Padres vs. Rockies Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, Aug. 31)

Padres vs. Rockies Odds

Odds updated as of Monday at 7:40 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After a 13-run explosion on Sunday afternoon, German Marquez will try and quiet San Diego’s bats and get the Rockies back on track. San Diego will send Garrett Richards to the mound to try to keep the moment going, as the Padres trail the Dodgers by only five games in the NL West.

Padres Projected Lineup

The Padres have been the best offense in MLB so far in 2020. They’ve hit 61 home runs through their first 36 games, which has led to a .350 wOBA and 122 wRC+. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have been two of the best hitters in baseball this season, combining for 24 home runs and 58 RBIs in only 35 games.

The Padres have done most of their damage against right-handed pitching, ranking third in MLB in terms of wOBA (.352). They’ve also been crushing fastballs and sliders, which are Marquez’s main two pitches.

Padres Probable Starter

Garrett Richards, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Richards has struggled so far in 2020, posting a 5.17 ERA and 4.88 xFIP.

Richards’ 2019 season was cut short by injury. However, going back to his 2018 season he was really effective, posting a 3.62 xFIP in 76.2 innings of work.

Richards primarily uses a fastball/slider combination with a lot of velocity. He throws a hard slider that doesn’t have much horizontal movement, but drops off the table. So far this season he hasn’t been very effective with either pitch, as both are allowing a wOBA over .320.

The Rockies rank in the top five in MLB versus both fastballs and sliders, so Richards’ bad start to 2020 is not likely to get any better on Monday.

Rockies Projected Lineup

The Rockies offense has been fairly average, with a .321 wOBA and 87 wRC+. It has been in a slump over the past two week, hitting only .246 with a .308 wOBA. Colorado may have the best 2-3-4 hitters in baseball, but after Story, Blackmon, and Arenado, its lineup drops off a cliff. The rest of the Rockies lineup will need to step up if Colorado is going to make a run at the playoffs.

Rockies Probable Starter

German Marquez, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Marquez has been OK so far in 2020, posting a 4.50 ERA and 3.88 xFIP. However, he’s had major issues with his fastball, as opponents are hitting it for a .389 average and .462 wOBA. His fastball has above-average velocity and features both a four-seam and a two-seam, both of which have pretty average movement. The lack of movement and issues with location are the reason he has been hit around the yard so far this season.

Where Marquez excels is with his curveball and slider and they’ve been on point so far in 2020. Both pitches have allowed only a .133 average and are producing a whiff rate more than 40%.

The Padres have been fantastic versus both fastballs and sliders, but have struggled against curveballs, so look for Marquez to feature that pitch a lot on Monday.

Bullpens

Both bullpens haven’t been great so far this season, ranking in the bottom half of MLB in terms of ERA and xFIP. Both bullpens have been stretched thin during this series, so a quality start from both starters would be welcoming news to relievers on both teams.

Projections and Pick

Since the Rockies bullpen has been a disaster to this point in the season, I am going to avoid it at all costs. I think Marquez has an advantage over Richards at the moment, so I am going to back the Rockies for the first five innings at -110 (DraftKings), but that’s the highest number I would play.

Pick: Rockies First Five Innings (-110) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]