MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/15: Back Mariners to Right Ship vs. Indians?
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 15 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Orioles-Red Sox and Indians-Mariners matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles today, with an 11:05 AM first pitch as part of the annual Patriots’ Day festivities in Boston.
Since 2005, the Red Sox are 9-4 in Patriots’ Day games, with their last three losses coming by one run. They have been a favorite of greater than -200 just twice previously during this span, beating Baltimore 12-1 in 2009, and Toronto 12-7 in 2005.
Favorites typically have the advantage if the first pitch is before lunchtime:
.@RedSox are -250 favorites on Patriots' Day vs. the Orioles.
Since 2005, in games that start before noon the favorite has gone 19-8 straight up.
A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $549 betting the chalk per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 15, 2019
Boston’s only lost once as a relatively large favorite in this matchup, at odds of -165 against Tampa Bay in 2010.
The Over is 7-5-1 in these early Patriots’ Day starts, but the games have gone under the total for five of the past six years.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.
My actual picks went 5-1, and I was up 2.58U for the day.
It was a good day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents on the Marlins F5 line, 9 cents combined on the Dodgers game and F5 lines, 10 cents on the total, and two cents on the Pirates moneyline.
Conversely, I lost 12 cents on the Mariners F5 line (+158 to +170)
On Deck for Monday, April 15
All odds as of early Monday morning.
The model recommends two full-game moneylines, and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Indians and Marlins as the full-game plays. It also likes the Indians as an F5 play.
Yu Darvish has yet to look fully healthy in his three starts for the Cubs to begin the 2019 season. Darvish missed most of the 2018 season with a stress reaction and triceps strain in his throwing elbow and arm.
Darvish’s fastball velocity is down 2 mph in 2019 from years prior (94.8 to 92.8), and his secondary offerings have experienced a comparable velocity drop. Darvish’s 2019 results haven’t been good either — 12 hits, 11 walks, and 11 runs allowed in 12 innings pitched.
The Cubs will face change-up specialist Trevor Richards, an effective 25-year-old righty. He’s one arm in a rotation full of young pitchers who keep the Marlins competitive in almost every game:
Trevor Richards, Disgusting Changeups. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/UkmlAKddAu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2018
The Indians and Mariners will face off with a late start in Seattle, in what should amount to a great pitching matchup between Trevor Bauer and Yusei Kikuchi.
Now that we have more batted ball data on Kikuchi, we’re starting to learn that he’s definitely an above average pitcher, but probably not elite. Kikuchi certainly has two effective breaking balls:
Yusei Kikuchi, Nasty Back Foot Slider. 😨
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2019
However, his fastball and change-up leave a little to be desired, placing him more like a No. 2 or No. 3 type starter, rather than an ace.
Trevor Bauer allowed one hit and one run over his first 14 innings pitched this season, demonstrating the level of dominance that he is capable of reaching.
Bauer can get to that untouchable gear on his best days — a place that Kikuchi cannot go — suggesting a visual and mathematical edge if both are at their best.
The discrepancy in their batted ball data suggests an expected ERA gap of nearly one full run.
Bets (So Far) for April 15
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Cleveland Indians (-110) Game ML
- Miami Marlins (+130) Game ML
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/15: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.