Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 15 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Orioles-Red Sox and Indians-Mariners matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles today, with an 11:05 AM first pitch as part of the annual Patriots’ Day festivities in Boston.
Since 2005, the Red Sox are 9-4 in Patriots’ Day games, with their last three losses coming by one run. They have been a favorite of greater than -200 just twice previously during this span, beating Baltimore 12-1 in 2009, and Toronto 12-7 in 2005.
Favorites typically have the advantage if the first pitch is before lunchtime:
Boston’s only lost once as a relatively large favorite in this matchup, at odds of -165 against Tampa Bay in 2010.
The Over is 7-5-1 in these early Patriots’ Day starts, but the games have gone under the total for five of the past six years.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.
My actual picks went 5-1, and I was up 2.58U for the day.
It was a good day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents on the Marlins F5 line, 9 cents combined on the Dodgers game and F5 lines, 10 cents on the total, and two cents on the Pirates moneyline.
Conversely, I lost 12 cents on the Mariners F5 line (+158 to +170)
On Deck for Monday, April 15
All odds as of early Monday morning.
The model recommends two full-game moneylines, and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.