MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/24: Will Chris Paddack Quiet the Mariners?

Apr 24, 2019 06:05 PM EDT
Credit:

Rick Scuteri, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Paddack

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 24 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rays-Royals and Padres-Mariners mathcups.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Javy Baez must know that the NFL draft is on Thursday night, and he must also know that the Chicago Bears are out looking for a second running back after flicking the right thumbstick and showing off his left juke move on Tuesday:

Zach Wheeler reverted to his 2018 form and dominated the Phillies both on the mound (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11K) and at the plate:

Franmil Reyes also continued to show off his ridiculous power for the Padres, glancing a ball in his dead zone and driving it over the wall in left-center:

Rest assured, if Franmil Reyes is in the 2019 home run derby (and Joey Gallo isn’t), I will be picking Reyes to win; few athletes on earth possess such ruthless raw power.


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 2-0 against full-game moneylines on Tuesday, nailing the Tigers (Game 1) and Marlins upsets. The model also suggested an edge on the Tigers in Game 2 of their doubleheader, which they swept in Boston.

My actual picks went 3-1, and I was up 2.38 units for the day.

It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 18 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+161 to +143), and four cents on the Padres moneyline (-126 to -130), but lost six cents on the Reds moneyline (-101 to +105) and 15 cents total on the Tigers moneyline plays (+185, +190 to +195).

I had the Tigers as high as +200 for the same matchup on Monday, and the line for Tuesday afternoon opened where the market had settled on Monday (Tigers +185). For some reason, the number went up again by first pitch.


On Deck for Wednesday, April 24

All odds as of Wednesday morning (view live odds).

Based on opening lines, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) for Wednesday. 

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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