MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/24: Will Chris Paddack Quiet the Mariners?
Rick Scuteri, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Paddack
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 24 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rays-Royals and Padres-Mariners mathcups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Javy Baez must know that the NFL draft is on Thursday night, and he must also know that the Chicago Bears are out looking for a second running back after flicking the right thumbstick and showing off his left juke move on Tuesday:
Zach Wheeler reverted to his 2018 form and dominated the Phillies both on the mound (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11K) and at the plate:
Franmil Reyes also continued to show off his ridiculous power for the Padres, glancing a ball in his dead zone and driving it over the wall in left-center:
Rest assured, if Franmil Reyes is in the 2019 home run derby (and Joey Gallo isn’t), I will be picking Reyes to win; few athletes on earth possess such ruthless raw power.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 2-0 against full-game moneylines on Tuesday, nailing the Tigers (Game 1) and Marlins upsets. The model also suggested an edge on the Tigers in Game 2 of their doubleheader, which they swept in Boston.
My actual picks went 3-1, and I was up 2.38 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 18 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+161 to +143), and four cents on the Padres moneyline (-126 to -130), but lost six cents on the Reds moneyline (-101 to +105) and 15 cents total on the Tigers moneyline plays (+185, +190 to +195).
I had the Tigers as high as +200 for the same matchup on Monday, and the line for Tuesday afternoon opened where the market had settled on Monday (Tigers +185). For some reason, the number went up again by first pitch.
On Deck for Wednesday, April 24
All odds as of Wednesday morning (view live odds).
Based on opening lines, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) for Wednesday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, and Minnesota Twins as the full-game plays. It also likes the Marlins and Twins as F5 plays, in addition to the Oakland Athletics and the San Diego Padres.
The model sees three teams (Boston, San Diego, Tampa Bay) winning their F5 moneyline over two-thirds of the time. As a result, I’m going to be laying a few F5 runlines today.
Let’s start with the Tampa Bay Rays. The model didn’t flag the Rays, but I am still going to back them with Blake Snell returning today from a broken toe. Behind Snell, I have Tampa Bay winning the first half of this game 70.22% of the time, which is one of the highest probabilities I have seen this season.
After winning the 2018 Cy Young, Snell is somehow still improving, with a strikeout minus walk percentage (36%) nearly 12 percent higher than last season (22.4%).
Snell owns a 36:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings pitched, and his small sample swinging strike rate (19.5%) is jaw-dropping, 4.4 % ahead of his 2018 mark.
With a +48 run differential in 24 games played, no team has beaten up their opponents more than the Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City owns a -26 run differential, fourth worst in MLB. Therefore, I’d consider laying the full game spread too.
I have Chris Paddack and the Padres as a similarly heavy F5 favorite (68.55%) against the Seattle Mariners, as Felix Hernandez is about a 4.5+ ERA, 1.4+ WHIP starting pitcher now. Meanwhile, Paddack has flashed his devastating change-up and tremendous command over his first four big league starts:
The Padres offense is also rolling. Franmil Reyes hit two more home runs last night, and no player has improved his remaining 2019 projections more than 20-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who currently ranks in the top ten in position player WAR, homers, and steals on the season.
Tatis also plays good defense at the most premium defensive position. Check out his 93 mph cannon:
Lastly, I’ll be playing the Reds again on the full-game moneyline. People were high on the Reds coming into the season, but that quickly cooled after a slow start.
After winning four of five games, and now swinging the bats much better, I’m happy to get the Reds at plus-money at home. My projection has them as a -110 favorite.
Bets (So Far) for April 24
- Cincinnati Reds (+112) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics, -0.5 F5 (-105)
- San Diego Padres, -0.5 F5 (-115)
- Tampa Bay Rays, -0.5 F5 (-155)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/24: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.