MLB Home Run Props Today | Willy Adames, Chas McCormick, Jose Ramirez (Monday, September 18)
Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames, Jose Ramirez, Chas McCormick
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +19736 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Guardians vs. Royals, 2:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: Brady Singer (RHP)
It has been a relatively quiet season for Jose Ramirez. The Guardians have dragged their feet through the second half of the season, and aside from his knockout punch to Tim Anderson, there hasn’t been much noise surrounding Ramirez and the Cleveland camp.
But when comparing last year to this, there have been some improvements on the 31-year-old’s end. His barrel rate has jumped nearly an entire percent and his strikeout rate has dropped below 11% for the first time since 2017. He’s posted the highest xBA (.293) since that time as well.
Ramirez isn’t the prototypical power hitter who barrels a ton of balls. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t crushing the ball — his hard-hit rate is above 40% and xSLG in the 82nd percentile of all hitters. He is live for a home run.
In fact, Ramirez is in rhythm entering this Monday night game. Over the last 15 days, Ramirez is hitting .321 with a .959 OPS. He has three home runs and a 40% extra-base hit rate in that span.
Brady Singer takes the mound for KC opposite Ramirez and he has really struggled of late. Since his eight shutout innings against the Mets on Aug. 3, Singer has thrown 32 innings of 27-run ball (25 earned) and has allowed seven home runs.
The righty ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and has a career-worst xBA (.274), xERA (4.94) and xSLG (.447). His barrel rate is similar to that of last season, which grades around league average.
There aren’t many power hitters on this Guardians team, but Ramirez is among the best. He ranks third on the team in ISO against righties (.191) and second in wRC+ (132) behind Josh Naylor.
Why I like Ramirez over Naylor is recent form: Naylor’s recent hard-hit and fly ball graphs have declined while Ramirez has been on the upswing.
Ramirez was +625 to hit a HR at bet365 as of this writing, but if that comes down, he's also +475 at FanDuel.
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers vs. Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: Adam Wainwright (RHP)
When Adam Wainwright takes the mound, you fade the 42-year-old. It’s the retirement tour for Wainwright, who has become extremely ineffective and torn apart in 2023. He’ll finish out the season with St. Louis, and it’ll come with great opportunities to fade the right-hander a few more times.
Wainwright ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG. His barrel rate (11.7%) has nearly doubled from his previous career low and his xERA sits at 7.75. As expected, his velocity has declined over the years, and Wainwright now rarely generates swings and misses or chases.
This is great for betting player props, because the ball is consistently put into play. And no better Brewer to take than the free-swinging Willy Adames. Looking at his rolling fly ball graphs, Adames is hitting the ball in the air at the highest rate of the season. His hard-hit rate has remained steady.
This is a great matchup for Adames against the soft-tossing Wainwright. Adames barrels the ball at a 12.8% rate, and we’ve actually seen his strikeout rate improve year over year since 2020.
While his wRC+ does sit below 100 against right-handed pitching, his .198 ISO ranks best on the Brewers. He leads the team in home runs (24), ahead of Christian Yelich by seven.
Wainwright is an easily hittable pitcher and has allowed eight home runs over his last six outings. Since his June 17 start against the Mets, he has given up 2+ home runs in six of 13 outings (46.2%).
The ball should be flying against the 42-year-old, and I like Adames’ home-run swing to get the job done.
He is +470 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros
Orioles vs. Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Starter: John Means (LHP)
This is a great time to buy the dip on Chas McCormick in a prime matchup against a lefty. In a lineup filled with some of the most talented hitters in baseball, you’d be surprised who sits atop the leaderboard when it comes to success vs left-handed pitching.
You guessed it, Mr. McCormick.
McCormick is No. 1 on the team in both ISO (.294) and wRC+ (182) against southpaws. He has the second-most home runs — nine to Kyle Tucker’s 12, but in 92 fewer PAs — and first in average (.336).
His splits are night and day, though he’s solid against righties as well. McCormick’s average jumps from .258 to .336 and his OPS sits above 1.000. Nearly 25% of all his hits against southpaws leave the park, and he has a 42.5 extra-base hit rate in those scenarios.
John Means takes the mound for the second time this season on Monday, as the southpaw returned to the mound just six days ago. While it wasn’t a bad performance — 5 IP, 3R — he gave up a pair of home runs and struck out just one batter.
I expect McCormick to find plenty of success here, and I think the Astros as a whole find themselves in a great matchup against Means. He likely won’t throw deep into the game, and the Orioles' back end without Felix Bautista is definitely less frightening to face.
While he has just one home run in September, McCormick is hitting .308. The power is there against left-handed pitching and Means isn’t the type to overpower you. Trust the righty here.
He is +480 to hit a HR at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, September 18
- Jose Ramirez (+625)
- Willy Adames (+500)
- Chas McCormick (+480)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,973.60.
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