Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Tony Sartori has that job for Monday, September 14.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Tigers ML (+118 at DraftKings | Play to +115)
- Braves/Cubs Over 9.5 (-106 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
- Giants/Cardinals Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM | Play to -120)
Tigers vs Blue Jays Picks
After a strong rookie campaign in 2025, right-hander Troy Melton joined the Tigers' rotation as a full-time starter this year. He has not disappointed, posting a 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 18 starts.
His underlying metrics are equally strong. Entering this matchup, Melton ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The pitching advantage goes to Detroit, given that Jose Soriano gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays. This season, Melton outranks Soriano in ERA, WHIP, xERA and xBA.
The Tigers also own the hitting advantage, given that they outrank the Blue Jays in runs scored per game, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
Pick: Tigers ML (+118 at DraftKings | Play to +115)
Braves vs Cubs Picks
These are two of the best lineups in baseball. Nobody scores more than the Cubs, who rank first in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
The Braves also rank in the top half of the league in each of those four key categories. That alone should make one feel confident about the over, but the pitching matchup provides even more reason for optimism.
Chicago hands the ball to left-hander David Peterson, who ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. On the other side, Reynaldo Lopez takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves.
Through 25 appearances this year, Lopez owns a 4.13 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He also ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA and xBA.
Pick: Braves/Cubs Over 9.5 (-106 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
Giants vs Cardinals Picks
A good pitching duel should be in store, with the Giants' Landen Roupp slated to face the Cardinals' Quinn Mathews. Roupp excels at limiting hard contact, given that he ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in barrel rate and 97th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Mathews has found his footing after a shaky start to his rookie campaign. He's allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past three starts, posting a 2.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch.
The most recent of those outings came against San Francisco, a game in which Mathews allowed just two runs in six innings of work. There were only three total runs scored in that contest.
His underlying metrics suggest that this success is likely to continue. If he qualified, Mathews would rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM | Play to -120)
