I didn't have any picks on Thursday thanks to the extremely small slate, but I'm back on Friday.
Every team is in action, and I've found three bets today.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 30, 2025
Athletics vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jeffrey Springs vs. Chris Bassitt
Between the two teams in this game, there are some very strong hitters at the top of the lineups, especially as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continue to heat up after somewhat down starts to the season.
Plus, overall, Toronto's lineup hits lefties better, and it has four straight right-handed hitters at the top.
On the other side, the A's young core continues to be impressive, with their two-through-five hitters all coming into the game with wRC+ marks of 120 or above.
The offenses are taking on a pair of pitchers with fairly bad early-game splits. The A's Jeffrey Springs has a 3.97 overall ERA that jumps to 6.75 his first time through the order, while Chris Bassitt's 3.38 mark jumps about a run.
With ESPN Bet offering a line well off the market, those are enough factors to take this bet.
Rays vs. Astros NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Framber Valdez
I have this game projecting as slightly better than 50% to the YRFI despite the 7.5-run total.
That's largely driven by the early splits on both pitchers.
Ryan Pepiot has a 3.55 overall ERA but underlying numbers all above 4.00, with his first-time-through-the-order xFIP jumping to 4.87.
While Houston doesn't have a great lineup at the top, its 1-2 punch of Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes is very solid.
On the Tampa side, it's taking on Framber Valdez. Valdez has a 3.36 overall xFIP, but he also has a 3.76 mark his first time through the order.
Tampa's lineup isn't great against lefties, but it's contributing enough equity to make this one worth taking at plus money.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Merrill Kelly
Between these two teams, we're getting four at-bats in the first inning from hitters with a 135 or higher wRC+, including two bats north of 160.
Both teams are also on the better side of their platoon splits by about 20 points of wRC+ overall.
That makes these both very solid YRFI teams, particularly in a game with a nine run total.
This is more about the bats than the arms, as both pitchers have solid ERAs overall.
With that said, Merrill Kelly's first-time-through-the-order ERA is on the wrong side of 5.00, while Jake Irvin's is just over 4.00.
They both also have higher xFIPs their first time through the order, so it's not simply a matter of bad luck.
