MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: 3 Tuesday Best Bets, Including Diamondbacks vs. Giants (September 28)
Jason O. Watson/Getty Images. Pictured: Luke Weaver
- The final Tuesday of the MLB season features plenty of matchups ripe with playoff consequences.
- We've got three bets from tonight's slate that present good value to our analysts.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets for tonight in Major League Baseball.
We enter the home stretch of the MLB season as this is the last Tuesday of regular season baseball. Today features a 16-game slate as every MLB team is in action and there are several crucial games with playoff implications.
Our analysts have three picks on the slate, including Red Sox vs. Orioles, Cardinals vs. Brewers, and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
Here are our three best bets for Tuesday night in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
|9:45 p.m. ET|
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Tanner McGrath: The Red Sox lineup has been crushing the ball, pacing MLB in OPS (.878), wOBA (.374), and wRC+ (134) over the past two weeks. Led by Bobby Dalbec (172 wRC+ in September) and Xander Bogaerts (138 wRC+ in September), the Red Sox have hit the over in five of their last seven road games.
Today, they’ll face Bruce Zimmerman, who isn’t exactly a top-tier pitcher.
|Statistic||2021 MLB Percentile Rank|
|Avg Exit Velocity||8|
|Max Exit Velocity||1|
While he’s posted a 4.83 ERA, he’s paired it with a 6.40 xERA. Given Boston’s proclivity for hitting southpaws, he should be in for a long day.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox throw out Chris Sale, who’s having a solid season following Tommy John. However, the Orioles love hitting lefties, as they’ve been a top 10 offense against lefties all season. Over the past month, Baltimore has posted the 12th highest wRC+ vs. LHPs (106).
I think the Orioles can plate a few runs against Sale today while the Red Sox mash Zimmerman. That pushes me towards the over, and the state of these two bullpens makes me even more confident in that pick.
We’ve tracked sharp money coming in on the over, and our Action PRO projections make the total about 9.7. BetMGM and FanDuel have over 9 listed at -115, and that’s my favorite bet on today’s MLB card.
Cardinals vs. Brewers
DJ James: The Milwaukee Brewers have locked up the National League Central division, but that does not concede all hope of ruining a division rival’s 16-game winning streak.
Brandon Woodruff heads to the hill to face long-time Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright. Woodruff struggled earlier this month, but it was mostly due to a bad outing early in September, by his standards. Waino, on the other hand, gave up five earned in four innings of work against Milwaukee just five days ago.
On September 23, the Brewers understood that Wainwright would feature his curveball pretty often, so they looked for his fastball and were able to take advantage of this strategy.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Woodruff throws his fastball about 96 MPH. On fastballs between 95 and 97 MPH from right-handers, the Cardinals only own a .298 xwOBA since August 1. Their xwOBA against his main off-speed pitch (his curve) is only .293 in that same timespan. Simply put, this matchup is a nightmare for them.
Now, both lineups have been below average against righties in September, shockingly, so neither gets an advantage here, and Milwaukee clearly has a stronger bullpen. In fact, the St. Louis bullpen has a 3.83 ERA this month with a 4.65 xFIP. Fans should fear the eventual regression.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
|9:45 p.m. ET|
Collin Whitchurch: I can’t quit the Diamondbacks.
Here we are, five days from the end of the regular season, and I’m still betting the worst team in baseball on the road against the literal best.
To be fair, Logan Webb has kind of come back down to Earth of late. One of the biggest surprises for the entirely surprising Giants has gotten roughed up in two of his last three starts, including getting dinged for five runs in six innings against the Cubs — so it hasn’t just been against good offenses.
Since returning from injury on Sept. 1, Luke Weaver has a 4.15 ERA in four starts and 21 2/3 innings. That’s not overly impressive, but he’s only walked three in that span. His bugaboo has been the home run, as he’s allowed five during that same span, including three solo shots to the Braves his last time out in what still amounted to a quality start.
The Giants are desperately trying to fend off the Dodgers for the NL West crown to avoid facing the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Game. But around here, we are #TeamEntropy, and the Snakes are going to help us get closer to chaos as the final weekend approaches.
This line implies the Giants win this game more than 70% of the time, but that’s too high given the pitching matchup.
Give me the Diamondbacks +240 to pull off the upset tonight. Bet it to +230.