MLB Odds & Picks (Sunday, July 26): Predictions for Twins vs. White Sox

MLB Odds: Twins vs. White Sox

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The Minnesota Twins will hand the ball to Kenta Maeda in the final of their three-game series against the Chicago White Sox, who have yet to name a starter.

Twins-White Sox Pitching Matchup

I’m not sure it matters that we don’t know who the White Sox will send out to oppose Maeda.

The former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher is raring to go for a Twins team that is focused on yet another postseason run. Maeda has been a more than capable pitcher in the big leagues since coming over from the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan. Maeda has racked up 137 wins against just 103 losses with a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 5.5. He has a 1.15 WHIP for his career, and last season he was even better after registering a 1.07 WHIP.

Maeda did whatever was asked of him by the Dodgers, whether it was as a starter or a reliever out of the bullpen. However, the Japanese pitcher always saw himself as a starter and will be motivated to join a Twins team that views him as a key part of their rotation.

The White Sox have two right handers behind Dallas Keuchel. The fact that a starter has yet to be named could be just a game of deception by their skipper, Rick Renteria. Given today’s climate, one also cannot rule out if this has anything to do with a positive COVID-19 test.

The Twins used a reliever, Randy Dobnak, to start Saturday’s game and never seemed to threaten the home team.

The first two games of this series have been dominated by whichever side had the best pitcher on the mound. I would expect that trend to also continue tomorrow.

Twins-White Sox Pick

The Twins' 10-3 loss to the White Sox on Saturday begs the question if this is the kind of team that can respond well after a loss of that kind. I queried how the Twins have performed recently after a loss of seven or more runs and I was pleased with the findings: The Twins are 6-0 in when coming off a loss of seven or more runs and 9-1 their last 10 games. This trend goes back to 2018, and in 2019 they were 4-0 in this scenario.

With a trend like this, it wouldn’t hurt to have a quality pitcher like Maeda on the mound.

I would play the Twins all the way up to -130 in this spot, which is an implied probability of 56.5%. I expect Maeda to be fully motivated for his start and for the first time in a long while, he won’t be looking over his shoulder.

PICK: Twins ML (Play up to -130)

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