MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Bryce Miller (Friday, August 25)
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies bats against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park on July 24, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Giancarlo Stanton had a much-needed four-hit performance yesterday, but the Yankees could not get back in the win column. Tonight, the Yankees will begin a three-game series in Tampa. Stanton might not have the same success against Zack Eflin tonight.
Yesterday, the Phillies got a day off after securing a series victory over the Giants featuring a couple of wild comebacks. Bryce Harper was right in the middle of it with a three-run game-tying home run for Camillo Duval's second consecutive blown save. He may just go deep again when Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals come to town.
Speaking of wild series, the Mariners-Royals series from last week was one of the craziest this season. They are meeting again this time in Seattle and Bryce Miller will get the start for the Mariners. He will look to help the Mariners get back in the win column after their eight-game winning streak ended on Wednesday.
MLB Player Props For Friday, August 25
Giancarlo Stanton Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Yankees vs Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET
With yesterday's performance, Stanton got back above the Mendoza line and will enter play hitting .204 tonight. He snapped a 2-for-29 slump in the process, which spanned 10 games. In that span, Stanton struck out 15 times and he has struck out 26 times this month.
Going 4-for-5 like Stanton did yesterday does not leave many chances for strikeouts. However, Stanton has struck out at least once in eight of his last 11 games. He has cleared this line in six of those games. Stanton has not faced tonight's starter, Zach Eflin, this season, but he is 1-for-8 with three strikeouts against him in his career. Eflin has 14 strikeouts in 12 innings against the Yankees this season.
I considered Stanton for yesterday's column, but he has fared better against lefties this season and he had solid numbers against Patrick Corbin. Stanton is hitting .260 with just five strikeouts against left-handed pitchers this season. Against right-handers, he is hitting .179 with 76 strikeouts.
I'm expecting Stanton to get four plate appearances tonight. If Eflin strikes Stanton out at least once, we will just need one more from the Rays bullpen. If he gets five plate appearances, I'll feel even better about our chances here.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Cardinals vs Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
After recovering from Tommy John surgery, it has taken awhile for Harper's prodigious power to return, but it appears the Harper of old may be back. He has homered in each of his last three games. Harper has hit seven of his 12 home runs this season in the month of August. He is also hitting .333 with a 1.127 OPS this month.
Harper has recorded two total bases in five of his past seven games. He has five home runs in that span and he is +390 to hit another tonight. However, he also has recorded two hits in five of his past seven. Harper is +175 for two hits tonight and he may be in line for another multi-hit performance against Miles Mikolas.
He is 5-for-12 with a double, two home runs and a 1.417 OPS against him. It has been an up-and-down season for Mikolas as he has a 4.55 ERA, which is a bit higher because he allowed seven runs in his last start. He also has allowed left-handed batters to hit .278 with 20 doubles and eight home runs against him. A hot left-handed bat like Harper will present a difficult matchup for Mikolas.
Bryce Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Royals vs Mariners, 10:10 p.m. ET
Over the last few seasons, the Mariners have been working from a position of strength with their depth of young starting pitchers. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have established themselves as top-level starters already and Bryce Miller appears to be next in line. Miller is 8-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 97 and 2/3 innings. He has faced a pair of tough tests against the Orioles and Astros in his last two starts, but he allowed only one earned run in 11 and 2/3 innings.
Despite that success, Miller only has four strikeouts in his last two starts. However, Miller has not reached six strikeouts in any of his four starts against the Orioles and Astros this season. He has gotten six strikeouts in 8-of-18 starts this season — 8-of-14 if you remove the starts against the O's and Astros.
Tonight, Miller gets the Royals, who strike out a ton and have been a popular fade for me all year. Over the last month, the Royals have the eighth-highest Strikeout Percentage (24%) in the MLB. On the road, Kansas City has struck out at a 27% rate this month. That means Miller presents some value for us if he climbs the ladder again.
Miller tied his season high with 10 strikeouts against the Angels earlier this month. You can take him for 10 at +1100 on FanDuel, but eight at +320 may be more reasonable.