The San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on August 23, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Twins vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Padres Prediction
- Twins vs Padres Pick: Bailey Ober Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
Our Twins vs Padres best bet is Bailey Over to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Padres Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +126 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -136 |
- Twins vs Padres moneyline: Twins +122, Padres -138
- Twins vs Padres over/under: 9 (-112o / -112u)
- Twins vs Padres spread: Padres -1.5 (+143 ), Twins +1.5 (-170)
Twins vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Bailey Over (RHP) | Stat | Walker Buehler (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 7-6 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.62/4.71 | ERA / xERA | 4.79/4.26 |
| 4.66/4.84 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21/4.25 |
| 10.3 | K-BB% | 10.6 |
| 34.2 | GB% | 47.4 |
| .270 | BABIP | .301 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 94 | Location+ | 99 |
Twins vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota closes out this series finale in San Diego with Bailey Ober on the mound opposite Walker Buehler, who's coming off a tough-luck loss despite allowing just two runs over six innings in his last start.
Ober enters at 7-4 with a 4.62 ERA, and while the Twins bring a more productive offense into this matchup, his own recent stretch on the mound has been rocky. He's posted a 5.47 ERA over his last five starts, giving up eight hits in two of them.
Twins vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
The strikeout profile here points clearly toward the under. Ober has never been an overpowering pitcher; he leans on command and soft contact rather than swing-and-miss stuff, and his season numbers back that up.
He's recorded just 67 strikeouts across 99 innings, a rate of roughly 6.1 per nine and right around 3.4 per start on average, essentially the line itself. His last two outings only reinforce the trend.
He was held to just four strikeouts over six innings against Baltimore, and in the start before that, he recorded zero strikeouts over six full innings against Kansas City. That's back-to-back starts finishing at or below tonight's number, both with a normal workload of six innings rather than a shortened outing.
His underlying Statcast profile tells the same story: an 88.6 mph average exit velocity against and a 35.5% hard-hit rate paint the picture of a contact-manager rather than a bat-misser, and a 10.1% barrel rate suggests hitters are finding the ball more often than not against him lately. San Diego's lineup carries some thump at the top with Machado and Tatis, but racking up strikeouts specifically hasn't been where Ober's struggles have shown up recently.
His issues have come in the form of hard contact and home runs, not punchouts, which is exactly why the strikeout total keeps landing low even in a rough stretch. Given the recent form and the season-long rate both pointing in the same direction, the under holds real value here.
Pick: Bailey Ober Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
