Thursday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Red Sox, Two Other Games

Credit:

Mookie Betts. Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

  • Sharp bettors are seeing a resurgence since the MLB All-Star break.
  • Wiseguys like a road underdog and a contrarian under on Thursday's slate.

After a brutal first half for the wiseguys in which public favorites crushed at an absurd rate, sharps have enjoyed significant regression since the All-Star break. It’s early, but so far in the second half we’ve seen dogs go 42-44 (48.8%), winning +13.24 units with a 15.4% ROI.

Meanwhile, contrarian unders (40% or fewer bets, 8 or higher) have gone 20-13 (60.6%), +6.39 units with an 18.8% ROI since the break. Pro players hope this hot stretch is a sign of things to come the rest of the way.

After analyzing Thursday’s 11-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.


>> All data as of 2:05 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Sharp angles: Mets +136
  • 7:05 p.m. ET

The Pirates (53-50) had their 11-game win streak snapped yesterday. Now they travel home to take on the 42-57 Mets. A red-hot team against a cellar dweller. Easy win for the Buccos, right? Despite getting 72% of bets, the Pirates have fallen from -161 to -147. Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better Pittsburgh number if the public is already on the Pirates? Because sharps came in on the road dog. The Mets are getting only 28% of bets, but 37% of dollars and they’ve also received the game’s only bet signal: a 5Dimes reverse line move (+9.9 units). New York also matches the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to the Opponent (+180.07 units since 2005).

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox

  • Sharp angle: Under 10
  • First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Despite a high total and a pitching matchup between two sub-4.00 ERA starters (Kyle Gibson 3.57 and Brian Johnson 3.81), the public sees a stacked Red Sox lineup at home and automatically says “High-scoring game, over.” However, the sharps disagree. The over has garnered 61% of bets, but 56% of dollars are on the under, indicating heavy under smart money. Sharps sat back and let public betting move the total to 10.5. That’s when they pounced, hammering the under 10.5 at three separate books: BetOnline, Pinnacle and Heritage. This heavy sharp action dropped the total back down to 10, where the juice is on the 10 Under -119, signaling it may fall to 9.5.


>> Follow Josh Appelbaum in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets.


Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

  • Sharp angle: Brewers -101
  • First pitch 10:15 p.m. ET

With the Giants at home and Rookie of the Year contender Dereck Rodriguez (5-1, 2.72 ERA) on the mound, nearly 70% of bets are taking San Francisco as a short favorite. However, sharps are buying low on Milwaukee. Even though the Brew Crew is getting only 35% of bets, the line has moved toward Milwaukee (+115 to -101). This massive reverse line movement indicates heavy smart money on the road dog. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Brewers +109, turning them from a dog to a virtual pick’em.


All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

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