MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees-A’s, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Domingo German
- Three games are attracting sharps on tonight's MLB slate: Nationals-Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET), Marlins-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Yankees-A's (10:07 p.m. ET)..
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages help reveal the plays wiseguys are making.
Finding three games on Tuesday’s MLB slate drawing professional action was not a difficult task. All plays in tonight’s Sharp Report were given away fairly easily by reading line movement, betting percentages and Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.
Pros have hit games ranging from 7:05 p.m. to 10:07 p.m. ET, capping off the night with what should be a heavily bet Yankees-A’s matchup.
>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET | Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 3.82 ERA) vs. Chris Archer (3-9, 5.23 ERA)
Behind Joe Ross’ near-6.00 ERA (entering the game), the Nats still coasted to a 13-0 win last night over the Pirates. They’ve scored 62 runs in their past five games and have won seven of eight. Tonight, they send Stephen Strasburg to the mound against a guy with 12 fewer wins.
Think the public might like Washington’s chances?
At the time of writing, 90% of bettors have taken the Nats. While that’s unlikely to hold up as first pitch approaches, it would be the highest mark of 2019 if it does.
For what it’s worth, teams getting more than 85% of bets have gone 12-11 this year, but have lost 5.2 units (-22.7% ROI) because of their minus-money payouts.
Despite their whopping support, the Nats have fallen from an opener of -164 to -150, which should scream sharp action.
Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record professional action causing market movement — have triggered three steam and reverse line moves on Pittsburgh, with nothing going the other way.
Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +151 to +138)
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET | Elieser Hernandez (2-5, 5.40 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (3-5, 4.39 ERA)
There’s no questioning that a +270 team should not be expected to win. Whether or not that team is a good bet, though, is an entirely different discussion.
Tonight’s Marlins opened at +273, and facing Dallas Keuchel and the Braves, they’ve drawn just 21% of bets. Those tickets, however, have generated 51% of actual money being wagered, meaning bigger bettors — ones more likely to be sharps — are seeing value on Miami.
In other words, they think the Marlins win this game more than 26.8% of the time, which is all it takes for a +273 team to be worth betting.
Two SI Bet Signals have hit Miami — at +265 and +250 — showing that pros are still finding value as the line falls. Sports Insights’ Line Prediction tool even projects this line to fall further with the next move.
Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +273 to +240)
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
10:07 p.m. ET | Domingo German (16-2, 3.96 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (10-8, 5.22 ERA)
Homer Bailey seems to have moved into pre-2018 Cleveland Browns status. Seemingly every one of his starts is met with a pros-vs.-Joes split in the betting market, and tonight is unsurprisingly proving no different.
With the Yankees opening in the -130 range, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see 70% of bets hitting them, especially given the pitching matchup. In fact, I’m a bit surprised that figure isn’t higher.
In any case, it’s pretty clear that sharps are not among that 70% as New York has fallen from its opener down to -124. Just as was the story in Pittsburgh, the A’s have drawn three SI Bet Signals to confirm the wiseguy activity on the home dogs.
Sharp angle: Athletics (moved from +124 to +114)