Padres vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Sean Manaea Due for Positive Regression (Monday, July 25)

Padres vs. Tigers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Sean Manaea Due for Positive Regression (Monday, July 25) article feature image

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Manaea.

  • The Padres are favored tonight against journeyman starter Drew Hutchison in Detroit.
  • Sean Manaea will start for San Diego after finishing the first half of the season in a rut on the mound.
  • Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Padres vs. Tigers Odds

Padres Odds-155
Tigers Odds+125
Over/Under8.5 (-105 / -115)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres continue their road stand on Monday evening as they open up a three-game series with the Detroit Tigers. The Padres took two out of three from the Mets to open the second half, while the Tigers dropped a two-game series with the Twins.

Southpaw Sean Manaea takes the mound for San Diego while the Tigers counter with right-hander Drew Hutchison.

Can Detroit bounce back at home, or will the San Diego bats get to Hutchison early and continue their successful start to the second half of the season?

Manaea Hopes for Better Second Half

Sean Manaea struggled to end the first half of the season, posting a 5.17 ERA in three July starts before the All-Star break.

Not much has changed for the southpaw in his first season with San Diego. His hard-hit rate remains in the low 40s and both his barrel rate and xBA have actually dropped in 2022.

Manaea's biggest issue has been the jump in walk rate. He sits just below double digits at 9.1%, which would mark a career-worst. His strikeout numbers have dropped ever so slightly, too.

But I wouldn't be too concerned with his command. Manaea's expected indicators also sit below his actual ERA (4.11), as his xERA is nearly a half-run lower at 3.74.

Manaea is also a lot better on the road than at home, posting a 3.76 ERA over nine road starts. He also has a 3.49 ERA in night games.

As for the offense, the Padres have been seeing the ball better recently. They rank 11th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA. They're also inside the top 10 in walk rate and have the second-best strikeout rate.

Detroit Puts Faith in Journeyman Right-hander

Once a playoff hopeful entering the season, the Detroit Tigers have been anything but in 2022.

Despite the additions of Javier Baez, Robbie Grossman and Austin Meadows in the offseason — and the promotion to top prospects Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson — success has been few and far between.

Torkelson was optioned to the minors and Meadows has played just 36 games this season. While Greene has been a bright spot leading off for Detroit, the rest of the offense has lagged behind.

Detroit ranks 29th in wOBA and dead last in wRC+ and isolated power. They draw little-to-no walks and score an MLB-worst 3.13 runs per game.

It's also important to note that Baez left Sunday's game with an injury and is questionable for Monday night.

As for Drew Hutchison, the 31-year-old journeyman has struggled in the first half of the season. While he has a 4.46 ERA, expected indicators sit around a half-run higher.

Hutchison has been barreled nearly 10 percent of the time and his hard hit rate is in the 40s. There aren't many bright spots for Hutchison, who relies on pitching to contact and has consistent command problems (4.24 BB/9).

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Padres-Tigers Pick

To me, this is a great matchup for the San Diego bats. While they just finished up a tiring series against the Mets, they now draw a struggling starter in Drew Hutchison on Monday night.

Hutchison has his fair share of struggles with strikeouts and command,  relying on success through pitch-to-contact. That is exactly how the Padres offense likes to operate, as they are disciplined at the plate and rarely strike out.

While the Tigers are much better against southpaws than right-handed pitching, Baez is considered day-to-day and the team is in disarray. I would expect Manaea to roll on Monday night against the Detroit bats.

All this to say, I think the Padres get the job done here against Hutchison over the first half of Monday night. The Tigers rank inside the top five in bullpen ERA and I'd rather attack them at their weakest — Hutchison — and not allow for an opportunity for any late blown leads.

Take the Padres on the first five run line on Monday night as they continue their road stand in Detroit.

Pick: Padres F5 -0.5 (-110, up to -120)

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