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Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Philadelphia to Win (May 12)

Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Philadelphia to Win (May 12) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday to open a four-game set.
  • Zack Wheeler heads to the hill for the Phillies, who have won three of their past five games.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup below and gives his top pick.

Phillies vs. Dodgers Odds

Phillies Odds +120
Dodgers Odds -145
Over/Under 8 (-105 / -115)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Dodgers dropped their third series of the season in shocking fashion with a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Pirates in Wednesday’s meeting.

Now, they look to get back on track Thursday when they open a four-game set at home against the Phillies.

So, who has the edge in a battle between two good offenses and two good starters? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Philadelphia Phillies

Slowly but surely, the Phillies are getting there. They have now won three of five and pulled off the impossible Wednesday when they won a bullpen game against the Mariners. I use the word “impossible” because I’m discussing the Phillies bullpen — one of the most unreliable and nervewracking groups of athletes in the entire world.

Yeah, the Phillies are playing better ball — at least offensively. They enter here with a 113 wRC+ in the last week which is long overdue with the quality-of-contact numbers they’ve sported all year.

Philadelphia makes an appearance in the top 10 of barrels per plate appearance, ranks fifth in hard-hit balls per swing and third in hard-hit rate. With that, the team owns the sixth-best expected wOBA according to Statcast. It turns out that adding a few high-exit velocity bats over the offseason will help out your hit probabilities.

Now, we have to talk about Zack Wheeler. On the surface, his numbers are nowhere near his Cy Young pace of a year ago, but that’s mainly due to two bad starts.

He allowed seven runs on eight hits over three frames against the Marlins in his second start of the year and four runs on seven hits over five against the Brewers the very next time out. Since then, he’s yet to allow a run in 13 2/3 innings, striking out 14 and allowing just 12 baserunners.

Wheeler’s fastball velocity remains down to start the season, but it’s important to note he still ranks in the top 23% of the league in that department and has pitched to a great 31.1% hard-hit rate and a solid 3.13 xERA to this point. He’s still nearly as effective as he was a year ago, with a couple of hiccups.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Whoa, that was weird. The Dodgers went into Pittsburgh — you know, to play the Pirates — and dropped two of three games. Around a big 11-1 win on Tuesday, Los Angeles was out-scored by a 10-4 margin in the two games that bookended the series.

It was just the third series the team has lost all season, and strangely enough those series losses all came against bad teams: the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Rockies.

Fret not, the Dodgers still rank fourth in wRC+ in the last week of play with a solid .191 ISO and 12.2% walk rate. The losses aren’t necessarily a sign that things are going south for the best team in baseball, rather a reminder that Los Angeles will lose some games every now and then. It’s hard to go undefeated over the course of a Major League Baseball season.

Tyler Anderson will get the ball for Los Angeles, and he has really become his own man in the last few weeks. I say that because the lefty opened up the season following Tony Gonsolin out of the bullpen, and pitched so well that Dave Roberts decided he’d just trot him out there to begin ballgames.

Things have been going very well for him. Anderson owns a 2.78 ERA, with solid peripherals including one of the league’s best hard-hit rates at 29 percent.

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Phillies-Dodgers Pick

Boy, it’s never fun betting against the Dodgers with such a great bullpen and a great starting pitcher pretty much every night.

That being said, I think Philadelphia is the slightest bit undervalued. There isn’t enough respect being handed to Wheeler, who has been excellent in his past two outings, and for a portion of last season was the best pitcher in baseball.

There also isn’t enough credit being given to the Phillies’ offense, which has been crushing the ball and is not too far away from going on a ridiculous run.

The Phillies are going to be contenders this season, and this series could be the moment they assert themselves. I think they’ll pick up a win to begin this exciting four-game series.

Pick: Philadelphia ML (+125)

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