Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Predictions, Preview: A Run Line Worth Betting
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Brewers SP Freddy Peralta
- The Brewers have an edge over the Reds this Saturday no matter which way you slice it.
- MLB betting analyst Kenny Ducey previews the matchup below, complete with a run line pick.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of early Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings|
The Brewers and Reds both enter this game on hot streaks, which would make the fact that this series is knotted up at 1-1 a perfect scenario. The Reds have vaulted back into the discussion in the NL Central and can make some serious ground here.
With all those exciting words having been typed, is there a little more than meets the eye to these Reds? Are we getting a bargain on the Brewers?
Let’s take a look at the matchup below.
Things are looking up for the the Reds. They’ve won seven of nine, sweeping the Cubs in the process and taking a game off the Brewers in Milwaukee to get into the mix in the NL Central.
Approaching the All-Star break, the Reds are now six games back of the Brewers for first place. And with a 46-42 record, the Reds are firmly in the playoff discussion sitting 5.5 games outside of the second wild-card spot.
I realize it’s far too early to be talking about the race for the postseason, but Cincinnati’s latest run has helped it re-assert the fact that it is a good ball club.
The Reds started the season so incredibly well, but had failed to find that success until now. It hasn’t been on the backs of great hitting, though. Cincinnati’s OPS in July ranks 17th in baseball at .721, and a .132 ISO is scary, scary low. It also hasn’t been thanks to great pitching — the Reds are 17th in the league with a 4.24 xFIP.
The Reds have just founds ways to win, as cliche as it sounds, with scattered runs across the board. Cincinnati has won four games over its nice little nine-game run with three or fewer runs! It seems impossible to keep that up.
So, it’s no surprise to see the Reds here as big underdogs, and frankly the books are being generous. Vladimir Gutierrez offers little hope with a 10.8% walk rate and a 5.12 xERA.
It turns out that the Brewers can’t win every game. After one heck of a heater that saw them win 13-of-14, they came back down to Earth on a three-loss streak, taking only two of the last three.
A loss on Friday night dampens the mood slightly, but there is still plenty to love about the Brewers. For starters, they had to face Wade Miley in that one, who has been absolutely shoving, and had Eric Lauer on the hill, who is hardly their best pitcher.
This team still owns the sixth-best OPS in all of baseball over the past two weeks, walking a whopping 12.2% of the time and posting an impressive .203 ISO. They have gotten guys on base, and they’ve also had timely hitting from just about everyone 00 even Jace Peterson and Luis Urias, who were probably not on many’s radar just a month ago.
Freddy Peralta gets the ball for Milwaukee tonight — he was suspected to be a Spider Tack guy after some videos surfaced of his fingers sticking to his glove this year. Although he did see a slight dip in his changeup rpms, there’s nothing alarming whatsoever as it pertains to his rates. They’ve been stable, and his fastball spin actually continues to climb. It’s very comforting to hear for Brewers fans, because this guy has been absolutely un-hittable this year.
The issue is that, while it’s been very difficult to make contact, he’s issued a boatload of walks. Peralta has walked four or more in three straight starts now, for a grand total of 13 in 18 innings.
The fact that the Brewers are somewhat palatable on the moneyline in a matchup as lopsided as this one is pretty shocking. Sure, Peralta is working through some command issues and the Brewers are cooling down at the plate ever so slightly, but Milwaukee has the far superior pitcher and the better lineup. On top of that, it’s the home team.
I am taking a rare run line bet with the Brewers’ first five inning spread a bit too pricy for my liking.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+100) at FoxBet