Saturday MLB Player Props Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Mitch Keller & Eric Lauer (July 16)
Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Keller (Pirates)
We spilt picks yesterday, as Juan Soto’s hitting streak was snapped. However, Jared Walsh was silent because Clayton Kershaw took a perfect game into the seventh inning.
Today, I’ve got my eye on two pitchers — one is undervalued, and the other is overvalued in a bad matchup. So, let’s find out who they are and how we’re betting them in today’s top player props of the slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Mitch Keller Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-108/-110)
|Pirates @ Rockies|
|First Pitch||3:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Pirates +115||DraftKings|
Mitch Keller is going to get his first taste of Coors Field this afternoon. However, with the market expecting a flurry of offense, it has brought Keller’s strikeout prop way lower than it should be.
Keller’s underlying metrics are not pretty, but he has not pitched that bad this season — he enters with a 3.99 FIP. He also still has plus stuff, with each of his spin rates ranking inside the top-40 percent of all qualified pitchers.
The Rockies are not a team that strikes out all that often, but they have more than a few guys who are strikeout prone. Ryan McMahon, Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron, Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson all have strikeout rates above 24%, which are all worse than the league average of 22.3%.
Keller has gone over this total in 70.6% of his starts this season, which gives him implied odds of -240 to go over again.
Our Action Labs Player Prop projections have him pegged for 5.1 strikeouts, which gives us a significant edge.
Pick: Keller Over 3.5 (-108)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Eric Lauer Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130/-110)
|Brewers @ Giants|
|First Pitch||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Brewers +110||DraftKings|
Lefty Eric Lauer will get the ball against the San Francisco Giants this evening. The Giants are in a great spot to attack Lauer, as they have plenty of righties who excel against left-handers.
As a team, the Giants are 12th in batting average against lefties, but they’re fourth in wOBA and third in wRC+. Expect the lineup to feature Yermin Mercedes, Wilmer Flores, Austin Slater and Darin Ruf, as they have all hit lefties over the course of their careers.
On the other side, Lauer has regressed quite a bit since May. He now has an xwOBA of .339 and a xBA of .259. Righties may only be hitting .237 off Lauer, but that’s expected to go up, as he has a 4.70 FIP against them, as well.
Lastly, this number is too low against a team that hits lefties as well as San Francisco does. Lauer has allowed more than 4.5 hits in 12 of his 16 starts this year. That gives us implied odds of -300 that he’ll go over again.
Pick: Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10