Tuesday MLB Rangers vs. Astros Predictions: Fade the Public on This Moneyline Pick (Sept. 6)
Emil Lippe/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Mathias
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Date||Tuesday, September 6|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
*Odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday morning
The Action Network has developed a historically profitable betting algorithm that aligns with roughly 75 MLB games per season.
One of those is Rangers vs. Astros on Tuesday.
The algorithm has returned 7% on investment since 2005. For reference, the average annual return of the S&P 500 — roughly the value of the American stock market — has been 8% since then.
That index is down over 18% year-to-date, as of Tuesday afternoon.
The parameters of the algorithm fit moneyline picks that fade the public. The specific metrics will be examined after the paywall.
Fade the Public Betting System Picks
This betting system fades the public on road underdogs that are facing very good home teams.
The retail bettors tend to overvalue these types of home teams, especially when they're facing bad competition.
The road team's starting pitcher's ERA also needs to be between 4.00 and 5.00 because the public also hates those types of pitchers. A 5.00 ERA is the cap in order to limit variance.
The Rangers' starter today, Glenn Otto, has an ERA of 4.82.
The best price on the market on the Rangers is with WynnBET at +230.
These types of moneyline picks have returned 7% on investment since the Bush administration.
But keep in mind that the picks lose far more than they win — the ROI is 7% because the betting algorithms only apply to underdogs.
This historically profitable algorithm applies to about 75 MLB games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
In order to maximize your 7% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this PRO system provides picks for the rest of the season.
PRO Pick: Rangers +230 or better