The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on August 22, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Marlins are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +164 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction
- Nationals vs Marlins Pick: Eury Perez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
My Nationals vs Marlins best bet is on Eury Perez to record seven strikeouts or more today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Marlins Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +164 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -178 |
- Nationals vs Marlins moneyline: Nationals +164, Marlins -178
- Nationals vs Marlins over/under: 7.5 (-120o / -102u)
- Nationals vs Marlins spread: Nationals +1.5 (-150), Marlins -1.5 (+125)
Nationals vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Jake Irvin (RHP, WAS) | Stat | Eury Perez (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-7 | W-L | 6-9 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 5.80 / 5.30 | ERA / xERA | 3.23 / 3.61 |
| 4.85 / 4.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.69 / 3.93 |
| 13.1 | K-BB% | 17.0 |
| 36.8 | GB% | 39.2 |
| .283 | BABIP | .254 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 99 | Location+ | 93 |
Nationals vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Eury Perez has turned into one of the best pitchers in MLB. Since June, the fireballing Marlins SP has posted a 1.30 ERA with a 2.30 xERA and 2.69 FIP in 10 outings.
For this game, I want to join the Perez bandwagon and back a prop that catches my eye. That's his strikeouts. He punches out 9.15 per nine and sat down six hitters via the punchout in three of his last four outings.
While Perez isn't a strikeout-or-bust, I view his punch-out ability as the key ingredient to what makes him an elite hurler. He gets a lot of swings out of the zone (73rd percentile in chase rate) and plenty of swing-and-miss (78th percentile in whiff rate).
There's been a noticeable uptick in the Nationals' strikeout numbers of late. From April to June, Washington ranked 15th with a 21% strikeout rate. From the trade deadline to now, when the Nationals traded Luis Garcia, they are punching out 25% of the time.
Perez will get plenty of chances to collect strikeouts, as eight of the nine likely starters for the game are going down on strikes 25% of the time or more.
The key difference could be Keibert Ruiz, who likely will sit, with Friday being a night game heading into a day game. He's a contact savant, posting a 9% strikeout rate, compared to Harry Ford, his backup, who sports a 29% K rate.
The rebuilding Nationals, who have no chance at the playoffs, are giving runway to hitters like Abimelec Ortiz, Dylan Crews, and Brady House, who are more strikeout-prone than Garcia and Curtis Mead, who got traded at the deadline.
If you're looking for a full game play, the Marlins run line could be the move.
The Nationals will start Jake Irvin, who has a 5.80 ERA. And behind him is the worst bullpen in the league, which blew another lead in Friday's loss.
If Perez contains this Nationals lineup like he does most teams, I like the Marlins' chances of winning this game by multiple runs.
So, if you aren't a prop player, take a shot on Marlins -1.5.
Pick: Eury Perez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108, FanDuel)
