Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, August 22.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- D.Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-113), 0.57u | Bet to -150
- Brewers -165, 1.65u | Bet to -200
- Rays/Orioles Over 8 (-108), 1.08u | Bet to 8.5
- D.Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104), 0.52u | Bet to -115
- Diamondbacks (F5) -180, 0.9u | Bet to -220
- Diamondbacks -163, 0.82u | Bet to -190
- Rockies +120, 1u | Bet to even
Blue Jays @ Yankees Picks
Dylan Cease has hit the double digit strikeout mark in six of his last 12 starts, though oddly never once twice in a row during this span. He’s also struck out 19 of 46 Yankees in two starts against his new divisional rivals this year.
Interesting about Cease is that he’s struck out RHBs 35% of the time this year, but LHBs, who he’s traditionally had more problems with, 37.4% of the time.
With the Ryan McMahon injury, BARTOLO is projecting six LH Yankees on Saturday.
Cease has faced at least 24 batters in eight straight bats and exactly that many in four straight. I’m projecting him for 25, 17 of them left-handed.
Through the first 25 batters in that projected lineup, Yankee batters average a 25.4 K% vs RHP this season.
Cease gets about a 2% park boost here, but that could be reclaimed by scheduled umpire Dan Iassogna and a weather effect pushing it back towards neutral. That last factor could change, but generally doesn’t too much. These environmental effects shouldn't move the needle much either way.
Factors are suggesting Cease’s third matchup with the Yankees this year could push his strikeout rate above 40% once again.
Picks: D.Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-113), 0.57u | Bet to -150
Braves @ Brewers Picks
Color me very surprised that Martin Perez has held a rotation spot all season and with a 3.15 ERA, it’s not entirely due to injuries. Even estimators that trend closer to four and a half are probably better than how I expected him to perform.
Using BARTOLO’s projected lineup, the Brewers average just a 95 wRC+ against LHP on Saturday, but with the three through six hitters all above a 135 wRC+ and .200 ISO. This lineup also averages a 123 wRC+ at home with only Cooper Pratt below average and a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Alternately, the projected Atlanta lineup average a 109 wRC+ against RHP with the top four above 110, but nobody else above 102. They’re also averaging a 94 wRC+ on the road and 96 wRC+ over the last 30 days, where only Matt Olson (141) is above a 110 wRC+ over the last month and four projected Braves are below 90.
With a 26.3 K-BB% and 37.5 HardHit%, I don’t think enough people are realizing just how good Logan Henderson really is. His worst estimator is a 3.39 FIP and even that may be a little high with 10 of his 13 barrels leaving the park.
I have him nearly a run and a half ahead of Perez overall and am giving the Milwaukee offense a slight edge too.
Defenses are a wash. Projected lineups differ by a single FRV (Fielding Run Value). Both also sit at -2 BRR (Base Running Runs).
BARTOLO ranks the Atlanta and Milwaukee bullpens 14th (3.91 wFIP) and 15th (3.92 wFIP) nearly identically.
If we stopped there, we’d probably have the Brewers as moderate favorites. However, when looking at last 30 day bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), the Brewers (4th) are more than a full run better than the Braves (27th).
I have them very healthily favored here and would play it to 2 to 1.
The early forecast is suggesting a chance of rain, which would keep the roof closed. If not, the park boost strikeouts 17% for LHBs and 10% for RHBs 10%. With scheduled umpire John Tumpane adding another 2.5%, I would consider Henderson's strikeout prop at 6.5 better than even money too.
Picks: Brewers -165, 1.65u | Bet to -200
Rays @ Orioles Picks
I feel like I must be missing something here. Camden enhances run scoring by 4%. The early forecast suggests a negative weather impact of up to 2%, depending on your preferred source. I’m using the worst number I can find to emphasize the point.
Projected umpire Nick Lentz gives that right back at +2.5%. Overall, this is going to be a positive run environment on Saturday. There may be some rain, but I’m not willing to sit on this.
The Rays have to be thrilled that Shane McLanahan has returned with a 3.25 ERA this season. His indicators suggest something more around four with a .255 BABIP and just 32% of his barrels turning into home runs.
The Baltimore projected lineup averages a 113 wRC+ against LHP. CES’s 201 is a bit absurd, but Coby Mayo is sitting at 197 too. This lineup also averages a 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Despite allowing just a .268 BABIP, the projected Tampa Bay defense has accumulated -9 FRV.
BARTOLO ranks the Tampa Bay bullpen 12th (3.87 wFIP), which is also exactly where their last 30 day estimators lie.
Brandon Young has a 3.52 ERA, but without an estimator below four. In fact, his 4.44 ERA over the last month is much more in line with his season indicators.
The Tampa Bay projected lineup averages a 117 wRC+ against RHP and are above 100 over the last month and on the road too.
The Baltimore projected defense is at -11 FRV.
BARTOLO ranks the Orioles 11th (3.86 wFIP) out of the bullpen with their estimators over the last month a bit worse (17th), averaging just above four.
Where is the superior run prevention that’s supposed to keep this game below eight runs? I can’t find it. Don't buy into the ERAs.
Picks: Over 8 (-108), 1.08u | Bet to 8.5
Cubs @ Mariners Picks
David Peterson’s 15.4 K% on the season and over the last month doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, even if his 20.4 CStr% is best on the board (that's going to matter more when we get to the umpire).
However, he has struck out 28.9% of LHBs faced this year and I’m projecting eight of the 22 batters he faces to hit from that side of the plate on Saturday.
If you go through the Seattle projected lineup via BARTOLO, you’ll find that the first 22 batters average a 24.4 K% against LHP this year.
The heaviest strikeout rates are at the bottom of the order, but it still may be enough to push Peterson closer to 20% for this outing before we even get to the environment.
The park projects to boost Peterson 18% in this outing (14% for LHBs, 20% for RHBs), but that’s not all. Scheduled umpire Ryan Blakney is also one of the K friendliest umpires, boosting punchouts nearly another 7%.
In the end, despite his low strikeout rate on the year, Peterson is in a spot where It’s not unreasonable to boost him close to a 25% strikeout rate on Saturday, which should have him reaching five more often than not.
This is even disregarding any motivational narrative with the Cubs moving him to the bullpen for an outing before Edward Cabrera’s most recent injury flipped him back into the rotation.
Picks: D.Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104), 0.52u | Bet to -115
Reds @ Diamondbacks Picks
Rhett Lowder’s 5.15 ERA matches his 5.17 xERA (9.3% Barrels/BBE) and his SIERA (4.72) and xFIP (4.70) aren’t much quieter (see what I did there?).
In fact, his contact neutral estimators are exactly a run above Mike Soroka’s 3.70 SIERA and 3.62 xFIP with Soroka's 4.09 xERA (32.6 HardHit%) a run better as well.
Lowder’s 8.8 K-BB% is almost exactly half Soroka’s 17.9% mark.
I think we’ve established Soroka’s superiority here by about a run. What about the offenses?
The Diamondbacks lose the more against LHP without Ketel Marte. Their projected lineup for Saturday averages a 99 wRC+ against LHP, but at least a 117 wRC+ at home.
And that’s still far better than Cincinnati’s averages of 75 against LHP and 77 on the road.
That’s two for two for the Diamondbacks, both by wide margins.
Projected defenses favor Arizona by 31 FRV and base running by 8 BRR.
Finally, BARTOLO rates the Cincinnati bullpen one of the worst in the league (28th 4.29 wFIP), while the Arizona bullpen rates as one of the best (4th 3.66 wFIP). That’s actually in contrast to their last 30 days estimators, where the Reds have been 7th best and Arizona 23rd with about three-quarters of a run separating them.
I still make Arizona a bit more than a two to one favorite either way, showing nearly the same amount of value between F5 and full game, which means that splitting to win a unit on both circumvents some of the potential bullpen volatility.
Picks: Diamondbacks (F5) -180, 0.9u | Bet to -220, Diamondbacks -163, 0.82u | Bet to -190
Guardians @ Rockies Picks
Pitcher A in this game has a 12.1 K-BB%, 37.8 GB%, 4.41 SIERA, 4.37 xFIP, 4.57 dERA and 4.32 xERA, while allowing 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 39.3 HardHit%.
Over the last month, he has a 4.46 SIERA, 4.72 xFIP and has allowed a .286 xwOBA.
Pitcher B has a 12.2 K-BB%, 39.3 GB%, 4.31 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.44 dERA and 3.42 xERA, while allowing 4.3% Barrels/BBE with a 28.4 HardHit%.
Over the last month, he has a 4.58 SIERA, 4.63 xFIP and has allowed a .303 xwOBA.
Okay, yes, I listed them in Road/Home order because that’s what I always do and Gabriel Hughes has just seven starts, devaluing his contact profile just a bit. Still, it looks like he’s been the slightly better pitcher.
Why does he have a 6.69 ERA? How about a 52.2 LOB%?
Some of the ERA gap between the two pitchers is explained by a 14 FRV gap in projected defenses via BARTOLO’s projected lineups, favoring Cleveland, but that's only a minor amount of the 2.68 run difference between the two.
That probably gets the two pitchers or run prevention units as a whole to equal.
The projected Colorado lineup edges out the projected Cleveland one by 6 points of wRC+ (averages of 108 and 102) against RHP, another 6 points Home and Road (98 to 92) and then 9 points by last 30 day wRC+ (102 to 93).
The Rockies also project for 2 more BRR.
Considering they’re also playing this game at Coors, we haven’t really figured out why the Rockies are +120 dogs here, have we? Could the bullpens be that far apart?
Via BARTOLO they are 17 teams apart with Cleveland ranking 13th (3.84 wFIP) and Colorado last (4.54 wFIP). That’s a pretty wide gap, but when considering 30 day estimators, the Cleveland bullpen is only one-third of a run better.
No matter how you add it up, I can’t get to Colorado +120 here.
I do show value on the Rockies F5 too (+106 currently) and if you want to go that avenue to avoid the bullpens, it's always your prerogative. I’m just showing quite a bit more value on the full game.
Picks: Rockies +120, 1u | Bet to even
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 15
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- D.Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-113), 0.57u | Bet to -150
- Brewers -165, 1.65u | Bet to -200
- Rays/Orioles Over 8 (-108), 1.08u | Bet to 8.5
- D.Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104), 0.52u | Bet to -115
- Diamondbacks (F5) -180, 0.9u | Bet to -220
- Diamondbacks -163, 0.82u | Bet to -190
- Rockies +120, 1u | Bet to even
