We've got a full, 15-game Major League Baseball slate on tap for this Saturday, August 22, starting early with Blue Jays vs Yankees at 1:35 PM ET (Yankee Stadium), including Cardinals vs Phillies at 6:05 PM ET (Citizens Bank Park), and closing with Twins vs Padres at 8:40 PM ET (PetCo Park).
Our experts have analyzed all the different angles for today's games and have come up with six MLB Best Bets Today, including a side, a total, and four starting pitcher props.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Blue Jays vs Yankees Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
There are three primary reasons New York is favored in this game: home-field advantage, Ryan Weathers’ recent dominance, and the Yankees’ hitting.
That said, this line appears to be an overadjustment to those three factors, especially when examining them more closely.
First, Weathers has pitched extremely well recently but still trails Dylan Cease in virtually every major pitching metric.
Second, while the Yankees are the superior hitting team, they still rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage.
Home-field advantage is a legitimate factor in New York’s favor, but it is not enough to offset the other advantages Toronto possesses.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+100 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Nationals vs Marlins Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Eury Perez has turned into one of the best pitchers in MLB. Since June, the fireballing Marlins SP has posted a 1.30 ERA with a 2.30 xERA and 2.69 FIP in 10 outings.
For this game, I want to join the Perez bandwagon and back a prop that catches my eye. That's his strikeouts. He punches out 9.15 per nine and sat down six hitters via the punchout in three of his last four outings.
While Perez isn't a strikeout-or-bust, I view his punch-out ability as the key ingredient to what makes him an elite hurler. He gets a lot of swings out of the zone (73rd percentile in chase rate) and plenty of swing-and-miss (78th percentile in whiff rate).
There's been a noticeable uptick in the Nationals' strikeout numbers of late. From April to June, Washington ranked 15th with a 21% strikeout rate. From the trade deadline to now, when the Nationals traded Luis Garcia, they are punching out 25% of the time.
Perez will get plenty of chances to collect strikeouts, as eight of the nine likely starters for the game are going down on strikes 25% of the time or more.
The key difference could be Keibert Ruiz, who likely will sit, with Friday being a night game heading into a day game. He's a contact savant, posting a 9% strikeout rate, compared to Harry Ford, his backup, who sports a 29% K rate.
The rebuilding Nationals, who have no chance at the playoffs, are giving runway to hitters like Abimelec Ortiz, Dylan Crews, and Brady House, who are more strikeout-prone than Garcia and Curtis Mead, who got traded at the deadline.
Pick: Eury Perez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Cardinals vs Phillies Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Over in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, my new PRO baseball betting tool giving Action PRO subscribers access to all the live data I use to project games each day.
Here's a sneak peek at what BARTOLO provides for just this game:
Pick: Over 9 (-115 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Cubs vs Mariners Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
David Peterson’s 15.4 K% on the season and over the last month doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, even if his 20.4 CStr% is best on the board (that's going to matter more when we get to the umpire).
However, he has struck out 28.9% of LHBs faced this year, and I’m projecting eight of the 22 batters he faces to hit from that side of the plate on Saturday.
If you go through the Seattle projected lineup via BARTOLO, you’ll find that the first 22 batters average a 24.4 K% against LHP this year.
The heaviest strikeout rates are at the bottom of the order, but it still may be enough to push Peterson closer to 20% for this outing before we even get to the environment.
The park projects to boost Peterson 18% in this outing (14% for LHBs, 20% for RHBs), but that’s not all. Scheduled umpire Ryan Blakney is also one of the K-friendliest umpires, boosting punchouts nearly another 7%.
In the end, despite his low strikeout rate this year, Peterson is in a spot where it’s not unreasonable to boost him close to a 25% strikeout rate on Saturday, which should have him reaching five more often than not.
This is even disregarding any motivational narrative with the Cubs moving him to the bullpen for an outing before Edward Cabrera’s most recent injury flipped him back into the rotation.
Pick: David Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Pirates vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on Jared Jones's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 12.81 pitching outs, and oddsmakers are implying 13.96. The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 15 pitching outs.
If you can get the under at +121 or better there is great value on this prop, but this play is still good down to at least -116.
Pick: Jared Jones Under 14.5 Outs (-116 or Better)
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Justin Van Zuiden's Twins vs Padres Best Bet
I am going to keep rolling with this until the books start bumping Dean Kremer's strikeout prop higher.
Kremer has 13 strikeouts in two starts since the Twins changed his arm angle, and his advanced metrics weren't terrible to begin with.
Even though the Padres are playing much better baseball these days than they were earlier in the season, I am fully on board with the Twins' ability to turn pitchers around.
I believe Kremer gets to five or more strikeouts for the third straight outing.
Pick: Dean Kremer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 or Better)
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