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Yankees vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Jordan Montgomery & Taijuan Walker Should Subdue Bats (Tuesday, July 26)

Yankees vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Jordan Montgomery & Taijuan Walker Should Subdue Bats (Tuesday, July 26) article feature image
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Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery

  • The Yankees are slight favorites in the opener of the Subway Series tonight against the Mets.
  • Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for the Yankees, while the Mets will send Taijuan Walker to the hill.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Yankees vs. Mets Odds

Yankees Odds -115
Mets Odds -105
Over/Under 8
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV TBS
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It is finally here. Perhaps the biggest Subway Series in years pits the team with the best record in the American League, the New York Yankees, against the squad with the second-best record in the National League, the New York Mets. Many believe this could be a World Series preview, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves and focus on tonight’s matchup.

Jordan Montgomery will get the ball for the Yankees as he looks to build on a stellar season thus far. He enters with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Montgomery was at his best in his last outing as he twirled six-plus innings of two-run ball against a vaunted Houston lineup. He’s been nothing but consistent for the last month; however, his numbers suggest a different outcome is ahead.

Toeing the slab for the Metropolitans will be Taijuan Walker. Walker will be making his first start of the second half after a tremendous first half. He enters with a 7-2 record while holding a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. While Walker is not fueled by his All-Star snub, it’s best to believe that he aims to rise to the occasion against the best offense in baseball.

Look For Walker to Work Efficiently Through Yankees Lineup

This Yankees’ lineup has seen quite a bit of Walker from his years in the American League. While their career numbers suggest positive regression, this 2022 version of Walker is much different.

Walker has fully committed to pitching to contact. As a result, his strikeout rate is the lowest it has been in any full season. As for how his out are coming, 49 percent of batted balls have been grounders, which is the second highest mark of his career, and 21 percent have been fly balls, which is also the second-lowest percentage of his career.

Those batted ball numbers profile well against a Yankees lineup that is looking to drive the ball out of the ballpark. Entering this matchup, the Yankees have the 26th-lowest ground ball rate and the fourth-highest flyball rate. It should also come as no surprise that the Yankees lead the majors in a home run to flyball ratio, given their very hitter-friendly park.

However, Citi Field is a stark contrast to Yankee Stadium as it is a pitcher’s park that does no favor for hitters. On top of that, the wind will be blowing slightly out to the right-center field, which will negate some of the Yankees’ right-handed bats as their fly balls will have an extra battle.

Expect Another Quality Outing From Montgomery

While Montgomery’s peripheral numbers may look solid, a closer look reveals that he’s due for some regression. His FIP is 3.81 and his xERA is 4.07. However, the Mets are not the team that is going to bash back in line.

The Mets have the 18th-lowest team batting average against lefties and have a hard contact rate of 27.2 percent, which ranks 27th in all of baseball. Those numbers are why rumors are swirling of them acquiring a right-handed power bat before the deadline.

As for Montgomery, he’s been dominant against lefties — which may make up a third of the Mets’ lineup — and decent against righties on the season. In addition, he’s significantly benefitted from his breaking ball that he will throw to righties often, and opponents have only hit .141 off of it this season.

That batting average results from soft contact, which has been a theme for Montgomery this year. He enters this outing in the top 35 percent of the majors in hard-hit and barrel rates. When you factor in the Mets’ inability to make hard contact against lefties, we should expect Montgomery to cruise through this outing.

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Yankees-Mets Pick

Both starting pitchers have the edge in this one. They each excel at pitching to contact and generating outs that are opposite of their opponents’ tendencies.

The first five innings of this game have the potential to fly by, but the back end of each team’s bullpen has been excellent this year. So if we get quality starts from Walker and Montgomery here, this game should go well under the total.

Pick: Under 8

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