Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura Odds
| Rakic Odds | -345 |
| Tybura Odds | +275 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia |
| Bout Time | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Serbia odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Serbia with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura prediction for UFC Serbia on Saturday, August 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two fighters at a career crossroads will meet on Saturday, as 40 year old Marcin Tybura welcomes former light heavyweight contender Aleksander Rakic to the heavyweight division. Tybura has suffered two consecutive defeats, while Rakic’s decision to move up in weight came on the heels of four straight losses dating back to his last victory in March of 2021. Rakic finds himself as a substantial favorite in this fight, but let’s dive into the breakdown and see if his price tag is justified.
Tale of the Tape
| Rakic | Tybura | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-6 | 27-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:41 | 11:01 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 249 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/06/1992 | 11/09/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.13 | 3.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.86 | 3.26 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.64 | 1.30 |
| TD Acc | 21% | 33% |
| TD Def | 85% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Marcin Tybura has had an up and down career inside the octagon, but he still currently sits at 12th in the heavyweight rankings. He out-landed UFC newcomer Tyrell Fortune in his most recent outing in terms of significant strikes, but it was not enough to negate the three takedowns he surrendered. Tybura is at his best when he has the wrestling advantage. In fact, in the last eight fights involving Tybura, the formula has been quite simple – if he has been successful in landing a takedown, he wins, with all of his losses coming when he failed to do so.
Rakic will have a decided edge in athleticism. His 85% career takedown defense will pay dividends in making sure he gets the type of fight he wants in his debut at a new weight class. Rakic was already one of the largest men competing at light heavyweight, and by the looks of training clips, he looks to still possess his trademark physique as he gained the needed bulk in the correct manner.
Rakic will not be at a height or reach disadvantage, and he’ll be the much faster striker. His speed superiority combined with his varied kicking attack should allow him to dictate the output needed to stay in control of the kickboxing exchanges. Tybura will offer the occasional burst forward, but Rakic will still have the quickness and footwork necessary to evade the straightforward attacks.
Both Rakic and Tybura have dealt with durability issues, but it is the younger Rakic who may have more questions to answer about his chin. Against admittedly much more skilled and sharper strikers than Tybura, Rakic has three knockout losses on his record in his last four appearances. His most recent KO at the hands of Azamat Murzakanov doesn’t exactly inspire confidence moving forward.
The other question Rakic needs to answer is his lack of stamina. While it hasn’t been abundantly clear he lacks the cardio needed to be a true contender, I have my doubts he can effortlessly defend takedowns and strike with explosiveness for a full 15 minutes. If he starts to slow down, Tybura may be able to corral him into a dominant position or simply land a power shot when Rakic slows down.
The question becomes, how will Rakic approach this matchup? If he is cautious and measured, we could see a rather boring kickboxing exhibition versus the plodding Tybura. Tybura has been more defensively sound in the latter stages of his career, suffering just two knockout losses in the last seven years, with one of those coming against Tom Aspinall.
Rakic vs. Tybura Pick, Prediction
Given that so much of this handicap hinges upon how Rakic decides to proceed tactically, I am going to target one specific market offered on Draftkings sportsbook. Listed under the method of victory tab – alternate method of victory double chance, Rakic to win by decision or Tybura to win by KO/TKO/DQ is priced at +120.
I would play this specific double chance market anywhere you can find it at plus money.
Combining these two win conditions feels like quite the value, considering the likelihood of either is higher than that of Rakic putting away Tybura in the early going or losing a prolonged kickboxing match to the slower, less athletic heavyweight gatekeeper.
John's Pick: Aleksander Rakic to win by decision or Marcin Tybura to win by KO/TKO/DQ +120 (DraftKings)
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