Read our UFC Vegas 118 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Meta Apex in Enterprise, Nevada, for a 5:00 p.m. ET start time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 118 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 118 Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
Edmen Shahbazyan's moneyline is my biggest projected betting edge on Saturday's card, and one of the biggest edges I have shown on a side since I began blending my original market model with a new technical data model for UFC fights a couple of months ago. Both the market model and technical model agree that Shahbazyan should be an outright favorite in a matchup where he's listed at less than 40% implied to win.
Fans and bettors are backing Brendan Allen to win roughly 87% of the time, compared to implied odds closer to 65%. One of the data sources that factors into that market data sample is Tapology votes (nearly 5,000 votes for this fight alone, which is a significant sample size) relative to the betting market; fans are behind Allen at a 91% clip there. The public underdogs are a bit more obvious to detect using that process, but public consensus seems clearly overweighted towards the Allen side of this fight.
The technical model likes Shahbazyan's striking efficiency (+0.7 to -0.7 differential per minute at distance), power, and durability in a matchup where both fighters have poor striking defense (49% for Shahbazyan, 47% for Allen).
Allen's best when he's offensively grappling his opponents, but he's spent 44% of his fight time at distance, as he tends to lose position while hunting for submissions or positional advancements after getting his fights to the ground.
Shahbazyan should be the more dangerous fighter early, but he has shown significant cardio issues throughout his career. Still, he seems to have made improvements (4-2) since moving his camp to Extreme Couture, including his first three-round UFC decision with a pair of 30-27 scorecards against proactive grappler Andre Petroski (denied two of six takedown attempts; permitted 23 seconds of control time).
Shahbazyan is an extremely well-rounded fighter and a more explosive athlete than Allen. If he has sealed up the holes in his gas tank, he's a potential championship-caliber athlete. While it seems like he's been around forever, he's only entering his physical prime at age 28 and is coached by the same team and trains with the same fighters (Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland) who handed Allen his two knockout losses in the UFC.
I'd expect Shahbazyan to win early minutes, if not finish the fight standing, but you should monitor his cardio for a potential exit and consider taking Allen live either after five minutes or halfway through round two.
Unless the line crashes, there should be plenty of room on these wagers, but take Shahbazyan's moneyline to +110, and either add his KO/TKO prop to around +225 or play his inside the distance prop to roughly +185 (projected +196 and +163, respectively).
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan +165 (BetMGM) | Edmen Shahbazyan wins Inside the Distance +320 (BetRivers)
