Check out my Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez prediction for Saturday, August 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez Odds
| Bout Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| Medic Odds | -375 |
| Rodriguez Odds | +295 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+165/-215) |
| Location | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Serbia odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Serbia with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC makes its first-ever trip to Serbia for a 14-fight card from the Belgrade Arena.
The card features a main event in the welterweight division between No. 14-ranked Serbian Uros Medic and No 13 contender Daniel Rodriguez.
Medic, who is 7-3 in the promotion, has seen 12 of his 16 professional fights end in round one, including four of his UFC wins and one of his losses. All of his professional fights have ended inside the distance. Medic enters on a three-fight winning streak, fresh off a knockout win over Geoff Neal in February.
Like Medic, Rodriguez also enters Saturday's contest on a three-fight winning streak, alongside a 12-4 promotional record. However, he hasn't fought since July 2019, as he was subsequently arrested for marijuana possession while crossing the Mexican-American border. Rodriguez served eight months in prison and was released in April.
Saturday's contest will mark his first career main event or five-round fight for either fighter.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Serbia Main Event on Saturday afternoon and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 3:15 p.m. ET (12:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday.
Here's my Medic vs. Rodriguez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Rodriguez is the longer athlete (3" reach advantage) and the more proven fighter in extended contests; he is 7-3 on the scorecards for his career, while Medic has never needed the judges.
Rodriguez has been the more efficient distance striker than Medic (+2.4 to +0.9 differential per minute at distance) in four times the sample of UFC minutes. After Medic's early speed advantage dissipates, I'd expect Rodriguez to control the pace and tempo as the fight wears on. Medic is the more explosive athlete and carries elite power.
Still, he's a bit of a glass cannon – getting knocked out by Punahele Soriano and knocked down by Gilbert Urbina- and if he doesn't knock out Rodriguez relatively quickly, it's difficult to imagine him covering such a steep price tag as a big favorite.
Despite the winning streak, Rodriguez has looked slow and old in his recent fights, and you need to factor in additional physical decline given his age and the lengthy layoff following his prison stint, during which he had limited access to adequate training facilities or nutrition. He is one of the oldest fighters in the division at 39, six years older than Medic.
Medic is always able to get his hands on opponents early, and despite his somewhat unassuming physique, he clearly possesses some unquantifiable level of power in his hands. Rodriguez has only been finished once by strikes (a first-round head kick loss to Ian Machado Garry) and, apart from that, has seemed extremely durable. Still, the speed differential should pose significant problems from the outset.
Still, Rodriguez has more ways to win the fight; neither fighter is a good offensive wrestler, but Rodriguez is better at using the clinch to create cage control and smother his opponent up against the fence (29% to 11% control rate); that strategy could prove extremely effective at tiring Medic out and extending the fight into deeper waters where he is less proven.
Given the stylistic dynamic, I'd target Rodriguez in the live after Round 1; Medic's success should be frontloaded – with the majority of his finish equity tied to the first 7.5 to 10 minutes of the fight – and you're likely going to get a better price on the underdog if you wait, rather than taking his pre-fight moneyline.
If you do like the favorite, Medic, I would target his early violence props or place a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with the Under 1.5 Rounds (-150 at DraftKings).
Medic vs. Rodriguez Prediction, Picks
I projected Uros Medic as a -346 favorite (77.6% implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't show an edge on either side of the moneyline.
Additionally, I set the fight to reach a decision just 11% of the time (+809 implied odds) and don't see an actionable edge concerning the total or the distance prop (listed +870 at FanDuel).
In the winning method market, I do show a slight edge on Rodriguez by decision (projected +1394, listed +2200), or you can target him in the decision-only market. Still, this fight is extremely unlikely to go all 25 minutes.
I projected Medic by KO/TKO (projected -220, listed -230) as the most likely outcome, but if you're going that route, I'd pivot to Medic by Round 1 KO/TKO (+133) or an SGP with Medic and the Under 1.5 (-150) as better options to express that opinion.
Otherwise, I'd wait five minutes to capture what will hopefully be the peak price on Rodriguez.
Alternatively, if you want a pre-fight ticket, an SGP with Rodriguez and Over 1.5 Rounds (+500 at DraftKings) or betting Rodriguez and Fight to Start Round 2 (+450 at Caesars) pays out nearer to what I'd hope to get live.
Sean Zerillo's UFC Serbia Best Bets
- Daniel Rodriguez Live after Round 1
