Game 7 Notes: History Points Toward LeBron

Game 7 Notes: History Points Toward LeBron article feature image

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Photo credit: LeBron James.

The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Cavs-Celtics Game 7.

Facing elimination, LeBron James has gone 13-9 straight-up and 14-8 against the spread. The Cavaliers opened at +2.5. As an underdog in an elimination game, LeBron’s teams have gone 3-8 SU and 6-5 ATS.

In Game 7s, LeBron has gone 5-2 SU and ATS. As an underdog in these games, he’s gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. The last time he was a dog in a Game 7 was the 2016 NBA Finals against Golden State, and the Cavs won and covered.

Home favorites in Game 7s are 30-11 SU and 24-17 ATS since 2005. That said, small favorites of three or fewer points have gone 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in that span.


Lebron on the road late in a series (Games 5-7) has gone 13-14 SU and 16-11 ATS.

After the first elimination game in a series, LeBron has gone 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS.

LeBron has won 23 consecutive Eastern Conference series.

LeBron will be playing in the eighth Game 7 of his career: He’s gone 5-2 SU and ATS. He’s gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS after his team won Game 6, including 2-0 SU and ATS after winning Game 6 by double digits (with one of the two wins coming against the Celtics in 2012).

Did You Know? The Celtics shot over 50% from the field and over 40% from 3 in their Game 6 loss to the Cavaliers. Since 2005, only one team has entered a Game 7 with similar marks — the 2014 Spurs, who defeated the Mavericks at home in Game 7, winning by 23 points.

How LeBron has done in elimination games has been well-documented (13-9 SU and 14-8 ATS), but another angle is how he has done in the first half of those games. LeBron has gone 9-12-1 SU and 9-13 ATS in the first half of elimination games. On the road in elimination games, LeBron has struggled in the first half, going 1-7-1 SU and 3-6 ATS.

On the same note: This will be LeBron’s eighth career elimination game in which his team is coming off avoiding elimination in the previous game. In the seven previous games in this situation, his teams have gone 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in the first half.

Here’s a first-half spread trend in LeBron’s favor: When he’s been listed as an underdog in the first half, bettors have had success backing the Cavs and Heat in the playoffs. With Miami, LeBron was 9-6 against the first-half spread as an underdog, and he’s gone 31-25 with the Cavs, including 10-5 against the first-half spread as an underdog in the conference finals in his career.