Celtics vs Heat: Game 4 Prediction, Expert Pick, Odds (Monday, April 29)

Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Heat on Monday, April 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

Boston will have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Miami on Monday. Will the Celtics put their Game 2 woes in the rearview mirror or can the Heat somehow find a way to even the series?

Let's break it down with our Celtics vs. Heat preview and pick.

The biggest change Boston made after a tough loss in Game 2 was starting to relentlessly pressure the ball. The closeouts were weak and the shooting opportunities were immense for Miami in Game 2, and that drastically changed in Game 3.

Whether it was Derrick White, Jrue Holiday or even Payton Pritchard, the Celtics hounded the Heat ball-handlers and forced so many errant turnovers and an overall low shot-quality score. I expect Boston to repeat the same defensive effort.

On the other hand, I also expect the Celtics' offense to regress a bit. Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porziņģis did make some really difficult shots in Game 3.

The talent gap the Heat face in this series was on full display in Game 3. The Heat were swarmed and simply overwhelmed.

If the relentless effort from Boston continues — especially given the Heat are so thin in a physical series — problems may just get bigger for Miami to generate any offense. They are playing into Game Theory Optimal techniques, in which you try and win the math battle by making more 3s. That simply wont work against a Celtics team that is prioritizing on-ball pressure and quick closeouts with contested shots.

Erik Spoelstra has been brilliant, but this series is simply too much.

The two market angles to this game are an Under and Boston against the spread. Both have taken some steam and movement, and at this point it becomes a choose one or the other.

It does not make sense to play both a Celtics -10 or more while also playing an under 203.5. It becomes harder to cover a big spread in a low-scoring game, and that spread and total are on opposite extremes — a high spread with a short total. Choose your favorite one and play it.

I personally prefer the Under because I believe the ball pressure will be there for Boston, and the shooting efficiency will naturally dip as well.

Pick: Celtics -10.5 or Under 203.5

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